Mastering the balancing act of youth violence risk assessment: Risk and protective factors in justice involved youth

This thesis examines the combined use of the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV to improve evidence-based risk assessment for juveniles and young adults in Dutch juvenile justice institutions. It evaluates the psychometric properties of these tools, including interrater reliability, convergent validity, and predictive validity. Additionally, it explores how risk and protective factors co-occur across offender subgroups, investigates within-person changes through repeated assessments, and examines the added value of integrating neurobiological factors into risk evaluations.

Chapter 2 focuses on the validation of the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV, demonstrating their reliability and predictive validity for recidivism. Chapter 3 compares these tools with adult risk assessment instruments (HCR-20V3 and SAPROF) to assess their applicability for young adults. Chapter 4 identifies clinically relevant subgroups based on risk and protective factor profiles, linking them to different recidivism patterns. Chapter 5 examines individual change trajectories in risk and protective factors over time, showing that repeated assessments improve risk prediction. Chapter 6 explores the role of neurobiological factors, such as heart rate variability, in enhancing the prediction of violent recidivism.

The findings emphasize the crucial role of protective factors in risk assessment and risk management, highlighting their value in improving predictive accuracy and guiding interventions. This thesis offers several directions for tailored risk assessment and management based on an individual’s age, measuring change through repeated risk assessments, and recognizing patterns of risk and protective factors to facilitate personalized interventions and tailored care. The results also have important implications for policy and clinical practice, contributing to the development of a long-term vision for risk assessment and the effective implementation of risk management strategies in forensic settings.