Abstract
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 4161 |
| Journal | Nature Communications |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2018 |
Funding
We thank Jorid Höffken for her help in assembling the UNESCO World Heritage data used in this study. S.B. was funded by a joint United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council and United Kingdom Government Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy grant “ADJUST1.5,” numbered NE/P01495X/1 and Natural Environment Research Council funded Innovation Fellowship NE/R00689X/1. We acknowledge financial support by the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, within the funding programme Open Access Publikationsfonds.
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| United Kingdom Government Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy | NE/P01495X/1 |
| Natural Environment Research Council | NE/R00689X/1 |
