Abstract
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 4161 |
| Journal | Nature Communications |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2018 |
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Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. / Reimann, Lena; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S.J.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 9, No. 1, 4161, 01.12.2018.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise
AU - Reimann, Lena
AU - Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
AU - Brown, Sally
AU - Hinkel, Jochen
AU - Tol, Richard S.J.
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
AB - UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9
DO - 10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9
M3 - Article
VL - 9
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
IS - 1
M1 - 4161
ER -