Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Miriam Bertola; Günter Blöschl; Milon Bohac; Marco Borga; Attilio Castellarin; Giovanni B. Chirico; Pierluigi Claps; Eleonora Dallan; Irina Danilovich; Daniele Ganora; Liudmyla Gorbachova; Ondrej Ledvinka; Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova; Alberto Montanari; Valeriya Ovcharuk; Alberto Viglione; Elena Volpi; Berit Arheimer; Giuseppe Tito Aronica; Ognjen Bonacci; Ivan Čanjevac; Andras Csik; Natalia Frolova; Boglarka Gnandt; Zoltan Gribovszki; Ali Gül; Knut Günther; Björn Guse; Jamie Hannaford; Shaun Harrigan; Maria Kireeva; Silvia Kohnová; Jürgen Komma; Jurate Kriauciuniene; Brian Kronvang; Deborah Lawrence; Stefan Lüdtke; Luis Mediero; Bruno Merz; Peter Molnar; Conor Murphy; Dijana Oskoruš; Marzena Osuch; Juraj Parajka; Laurent Pfister; Ivan Radevski; Eric Sauquet; Kai Schröter; Mojca Šraj; Jan Szolgay; Stephen Turner; Peter Valent; Noora Veijalainen; Philip J. Ward; Patrick Willems; Nenad Zivkovic

doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Miriam Bertola^*, Günter Blöschl, Milon Bohac, Marco Borga, Attilio Castellarin, Giovanni B. Chirico, Pierluigi Claps, Eleonora Dallan, Irina Danilovich, Daniele Ganora, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Ondrej Ledvinka, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Alberto Montanari, Valeriya Ovcharuk, Alberto Viglione, Elena Volpi, Berit Arheimer, Giuseppe Tito Aronica, Ognjen BonacciIvan Čanjevac, Andras Csik, Natalia Frolova, Boglarka Gnandt, Zoltan Gribovszki, Ali Gül, Knut Günther, Björn Guse, Jamie Hannaford, Shaun Harrigan, Maria Kireeva, Silvia Kohnová, Jürgen Komma, Jurate Kriauciuniene, Brian Kronvang, Deborah Lawrence, Stefan Lüdtke, Luis Mediero, Bruno Merz, Peter Molnar, Conor Murphy, Dijana Oskoruš, Marzena Osuch, Juraj Parajka, Laurent Pfister, Ivan Radevski, Eric Sauquet, Kai Schröter, Mojca Šraj, Jan Szolgay, Stephen Turner, Peter Valent, Noora Veijalainen, Philip J. Ward, Patrick Willems, Nenad Zivkovic

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

78 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	982-988
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	16
Issue number	11
Early online date	6 Nov 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5
Publication status	Published - Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We acknowledge all flood data providers listed in Extended Data Table . G.B. and M. Bertola were supported by the FWF projects ‘SPATE’ (I 3174, I 4776) and W1219-N22. B.M. and B.G. were supported by the DFG ‘SPATE’ project (FOR 2416). A.V., P.C., D.G., M. Borga and E.D. were supported by the European Union NextGenerationEU ‘RETURN’ Extended Partnership (National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). S.K. and J.S. were supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (number APVV-20-0374) and the VEGA Grant Agency (number 1/0782/21). J.H. and S.T. were supported by the ROBIN (Reference Observatory of Basins for INternational hydrological climate change detection) initiative, with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/W004038/1). The authors acknowledge the involvement in the data screening process of M. Haas.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Funding

We acknowledge all flood data providers listed in Extended Data Table . G.B. and M. Bertola were supported by the FWF projects ‘SPATE’ (I 3174, I 4776) and W1219-N22. B.M. and B.G. were supported by the DFG ‘SPATE’ project (FOR 2416). A.V., P.C., D.G., M. Borga and E.D. were supported by the European Union NextGenerationEU ‘RETURN’ Extended Partnership (National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). S.K. and J.S. were supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (number APVV-20-0374) and the VEGA Grant Agency (number 1/0782/21). J.H. and S.T. were supported by the ROBIN (Reference Observatory of Basins for INternational hydrological climate change detection) initiative, with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/W004038/1). The authors acknowledge the involvement in the data screening process of M. Haas.

Funders	Funder number
NRRP	PE0000005, 1243 2/8/2022
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/W004038/1
Natural Environment Research Council
European Commission
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft	FOR 2416
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Austrian Science Fund	I 4776, W1219-N22, I 3174
Austrian Science Fund
Agentúra na Podporu Výskumu a Vývoja	APVV-20-0374
Agentúra na Podporu Výskumu a Vývoja
Vedecká Grantová Agentúra MŠVVaŠ SR a SAV	1/0782/21
Vedecká Grantová Agentúra MŠVVaŠ SR a SAV

Access to Document

10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchmentsFinal published version, 11.6 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

Persistent URL (handle)

Persistent link

Cite this

Bertola, M., Blöschl, G., Bohac, M., Borga, M., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Dallan, E., Danilovich, I., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Ledvinka, O., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Montanari, A., Ovcharuk, V., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., ... Zivkovic, N. (2023). Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments. Nature Geoscience, 16(11), 982-988. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5

@article{e2eb5f1113294ef7bec24b4f734f275c,

title = "Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments",

abstract = "Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.",

author = "Miriam Bertola and G{\"u}nter Bl{\"o}schl and Milon Bohac and Marco Borga and Attilio Castellarin and Chirico, {Giovanni B.} and Pierluigi Claps and Eleonora Dallan and Irina Danilovich and Daniele Ganora and Liudmyla Gorbachova and Ondrej Ledvinka and Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova and Alberto Montanari and Valeriya Ovcharuk and Alberto Viglione and Elena Volpi and Berit Arheimer and Aronica, {Giuseppe Tito} and Ognjen Bonacci and Ivan {\v C}anjevac and Andras Csik and Natalia Frolova and Boglarka Gnandt and Zoltan Gribovszki and Ali G{\"u}l and Knut G{\"u}nther and Bj{\"o}rn Guse and Jamie Hannaford and Shaun Harrigan and Maria Kireeva and Silvia Kohnov{\'a} and J{\"u}rgen Komma and Jurate Kriauciuniene and Brian Kronvang and Deborah Lawrence and Stefan L{\"u}dtke and Luis Mediero and Bruno Merz and Peter Molnar and Conor Murphy and Dijana Oskoru{\v s} and Marzena Osuch and Juraj Parajka and Laurent Pfister and Ivan Radevski and Eric Sauquet and Kai Schr{\"o}ter and Mojca {\v S}raj and Jan Szolgay and Stephen Turner and Peter Valent and Noora Veijalainen and Ward, {Philip J.} and Patrick Willems and Nenad Zivkovic",

note = "Funding Information: We acknowledge all flood data providers listed in Extended Data Table . G.B. and M. Bertola were supported by the FWF projects {\textquoteleft}SPATE{\textquoteright} (I 3174, I 4776) and W1219-N22. B.M. and B.G. were supported by the DFG {\textquoteleft}SPATE{\textquoteright} project (FOR 2416). A.V., P.C., D.G., M. Borga and E.D. were supported by the European Union NextGenerationEU {\textquoteleft}RETURN{\textquoteright} Extended Partnership (National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). S.K. and J.S. were supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (number APVV-20-0374) and the VEGA Grant Agency (number 1/0782/21). J.H. and S.T. were supported by the ROBIN (Reference Observatory of Basins for INternational hydrological climate change detection) initiative, with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/W004038/1). The authors acknowledge the involvement in the data screening process of M. Haas. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2023",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

pages = "982--988",

journal = "Nature Geoscience",

issn = "1752-0894",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "11",

}

Bertola, M, Blöschl, G, Bohac, M, Borga, M, Castellarin, A, Chirico, GB, Claps, P, Dallan, E, Danilovich, I, Ganora, D, Gorbachova, L, Ledvinka, O, Mavrova-Guirguinova, M, Montanari, A, Ovcharuk, V, Viglione, A, Volpi, E, Arheimer, B, Aronica, GT, Bonacci, O, Čanjevac, I, Csik, A, Frolova, N, Gnandt, B, Gribovszki, Z, Gül, A, Günther, K, Guse, B, Hannaford, J, Harrigan, S, Kireeva, M, Kohnová, S, Komma, J, Kriauciuniene, J, Kronvang, B, Lawrence, D, Lüdtke, S, Mediero, L, Merz, B, Molnar, P, Murphy, C, Oskoruš, D, Osuch, M, Parajka, J, Pfister, L, Radevski, I, Sauquet, E, Schröter, K, Šraj, M, Szolgay, J, Turner, S, Valent, P, Veijalainen, N, Ward, PJ, Willems, P & Zivkovic, N 2023, 'Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments', Nature Geoscience, vol. 16, no. 11, pp. 982-988. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

AU - Bertola, Miriam

AU - Blöschl, Günter

AU - Bohac, Milon

AU - Borga, Marco

AU - Castellarin, Attilio

AU - Chirico, Giovanni B.

AU - Claps, Pierluigi

AU - Dallan, Eleonora

AU - Danilovich, Irina

AU - Ganora, Daniele

AU - Gorbachova, Liudmyla

AU - Ledvinka, Ondrej

AU - Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria

AU - Montanari, Alberto

AU - Ovcharuk, Valeriya

AU - Viglione, Alberto

AU - Volpi, Elena

AU - Arheimer, Berit

AU - Aronica, Giuseppe Tito

AU - Bonacci, Ognjen

AU - Čanjevac, Ivan

AU - Csik, Andras

AU - Frolova, Natalia

AU - Gnandt, Boglarka

AU - Gribovszki, Zoltan

AU - Gül, Ali

AU - Günther, Knut

AU - Guse, Björn

AU - Hannaford, Jamie

AU - Harrigan, Shaun

AU - Kireeva, Maria

AU - Kohnová, Silvia

AU - Komma, Jürgen

AU - Kriauciuniene, Jurate

AU - Kronvang, Brian

AU - Lawrence, Deborah

AU - Lüdtke, Stefan

AU - Mediero, Luis

AU - Merz, Bruno

AU - Molnar, Peter

AU - Murphy, Conor

AU - Oskoruš, Dijana

AU - Osuch, Marzena

AU - Parajka, Juraj

AU - Pfister, Laurent

AU - Radevski, Ivan

AU - Sauquet, Eric

AU - Schröter, Kai

AU - Šraj, Mojca

AU - Szolgay, Jan

AU - Turner, Stephen

AU - Valent, Peter

AU - Veijalainen, Noora

AU - Ward, Philip J.

AU - Willems, Patrick

AU - Zivkovic, Nenad

N1 - Funding Information: We acknowledge all flood data providers listed in Extended Data Table . G.B. and M. Bertola were supported by the FWF projects ‘SPATE’ (I 3174, I 4776) and W1219-N22. B.M. and B.G. were supported by the DFG ‘SPATE’ project (FOR 2416). A.V., P.C., D.G., M. Borga and E.D. were supported by the European Union NextGenerationEU ‘RETURN’ Extended Partnership (National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). S.K. and J.S. were supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (number APVV-20-0374) and the VEGA Grant Agency (number 1/0782/21). J.H. and S.T. were supported by the ROBIN (Reference Observatory of Basins for INternational hydrological climate change detection) initiative, with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/W004038/1). The authors acknowledge the involvement in the data screening process of M. Haas. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

PY - 2023/11

Y1 - 2023/11

N2 - Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.

AB - Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85175806334&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85175806334&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5

DO - 10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85175806334

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 16

SP - 982

EP - 988

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

IS - 11

ER -

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Access to Document

Persistent URL (handle)

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this