Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices

P.R. Koster, S. Peer, T. Dekker

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is probabilistic and subject to error. We apply the model to scheduling choices of commuters and demonstrate that memory constraints lead to sub-optimal choices. We analytically and numerically show how memory-based adaptive expectations may substantially increase commuters' willingness-to-pay for reductions in travel time variability, relative to the rational expectations outcome.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)256-265
JournalEconomics of Transportation
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2015


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