Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics

Maurizio Mazzoleni; Luigia Brandimarte

doi:10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543

Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics

Maurizio Mazzoleni^*, Luigia Brandimarte

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	604-613
Number of pages	10
Journal	Hydrological Sciences Journal
Volume	68
Issue number	4
Early online date	9 Mar 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543
Publication status	Published - 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was partly supported by the European Research Council (ERC) within the project “HydroSocialExtremes: Uncovering the Mutual Shaping of Hydrological Extremes and Society,” ERC Consolidator Grant no. [761678], H2020 Excellent Science. This research was also partly supported by the Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, CNDS, in Sweden.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Funding

This research was partly supported by the European Research Council (ERC) within the project “HydroSocialExtremes: Uncovering the Mutual Shaping of Hydrological Extremes and Society,” ERC Consolidator Grant no. [761678], H2020 Excellent Science. This research was also partly supported by the Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, CNDS, in Sweden.

Keywords

flood awareness decay
flood losses
human–flood dynamics
socio-hydrology
system dynamics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543

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title = "Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics",

abstract = "Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects.",

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N2 - Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects.

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Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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