Modelling the process of incoming problem reports on released software products

For big software developing companies, it is important to know the amount of problems of a new software product that are expected to be reported in a period after the date of release, on a weekly basis. For each of a number of past releases, weekly data are present on the number of such reports. Based on the type of data that is present, we construct a stochastic model for the weekly number of problems to be reported. The (non-parametric) maximum likelihood estimator for the crucial model parameter, the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, is defined. Moreover, the expectation maximization algorithm is described, which can be used to compute this estimate. The method is illustrated using simulated data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.