Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models

Julia Pongratz*, Han Dolman, Axel Don, Karl Heinz Erb, Richard Fuchs, Martin Herold, Chris Jones, Tobias Kuemmerle, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick Meyfroidt, Kim Naudts

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalReview articleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices—forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire—for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify “low-hanging fruits” for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1470-1487
Number of pages18
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume24
Issue number4
Early online date13 Dec 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2018

Funding

International Space Science Institute (Bern); German Research Foundation’s Emmy Noether Program, Grant/Award Number: PO 1751/1-1; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS/Belgium); Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, Grant/Award Number: GA01101; EU H2020 project CRESCENDO, Grant/Award Number: 641816; FP7 LUC4C, Grant/Award Number: 603542; NESSC We thank the various modeling groups providing insight into their modeling plans as depicted in Figures 2 and 3. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the International Space Science Institute (Bern) that sponsored the team on “Integrating Earth Observation data and the description of land management practices into global carbon cycle models” (A.J. Dolman). JP and KN were supported by the German Research Foundation’s Emmy Noether Program (PO 1751/1-1). PM is Research Associate with the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS/Belgium), which supports this work. CDJ was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and EU H2020 project CRESCENDO (grant no. 641816) and FP7 LUC4C (grant no. 603542). AJD recognizes the support of the NESSC Netherlands Earth System Sensitivity Centre. MH was supported by the European Space Agency Land Cover CCI Project and the ESA GOFC-GOLD project office. KHE acknowledges funding from ERC-Stg 263522 LUISE and H2020 640176 BACI. This work contributes to the Global Land Programme glp.earth. Primary data used in the analysis are archived by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and can be obtained by contacting [email protected].

FundersFunder number
BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeGA01101
ERC-StGH2020 640176
EU H2020
European Space Agency Land Cover CCI
FP7 LUC4C
International Space Science Institute
Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
Seventh Framework Programme641816, 263522, 640176, 603542
Institut national de la recherche scientifique
Ecological Society of America
European Space Agency
Deutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftPO 1751/1-1
Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
Netherlands Earth System Science Centre

    Keywords

    • climate
    • croplands
    • Earth observations
    • Earth system models
    • forestry
    • grazing
    • land management
    • land use

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