Modifiable prognostic factors of high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders: a replication study

Rikke Munk Killingmo*, Tarjei Rysstad, Esther Maas, Are Hugo Pripp, Fiona Aanesen, Alexander Tingulstad, Anne Therese Tveter, Britt Elin Øiestad, Margreth Grotle

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders are an extensive burden to society, yet few studies have explored and replicated modifiable prognostic factors associated with high societal costs. This study aimed to replicate previously identified associations between nine modifiable prognostic factors and high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders. Methods: Pooled data from a three-arm randomised controlled trial with 6 months of follow-up were used, including 509 participants on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders in Norway. Consistent with the identification study, the primary outcome was societal costs dichotomised as high (top 25th percentile) or low. Societal costs included healthcare utilization (primary, secondary, and tertiary care) and productivity loss (absenteeism, work assessment allowance and disability benefits) collected from public records. Binary unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to replicate previously identified associations between each modifiable prognostic factor and having high costs. Results: Adjusted for selected covariates, a lower degree of return-to-work expectancy was associated with high societal costs in both the identification and replication sample. Depressive symptoms and health literacy showed no prognostic value in both the identification and replication sample. There were inconsistent results with regards to statistical significance across the identification and replication sample for pain severity, self-perceived health, sleep quality, work satisfaction, disability, and long-lasting disorder expectation. Similar results were found when high costs were related to separately healthcare utilization and productivity loss. Conclusion: This study successfully replicated the association between return-to-work expectancy and high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders. Other factors showed no prognostic value or inconsistent results. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03871712, 12th of March 2019.

Original languageEnglish
Article number990
Pages (from-to)1-13
Number of pages13
JournalBMC musculoskeletal disorders
Volume25
Issue number1
Early online date3 Dec 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.

Keywords

  • Costs
  • Healthcare utilization
  • Musculoskeletal disorders
  • Productivity loss
  • Prognostic factor research

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