More or Less Vulnerable? Variation in the Extent to Which Mainstream Political Parties’ Voters Consider Voting for Radical Right Populist Parties

André Krouwel, Tim Bale, Lucas Tremlett

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

West European party systems have undergone profound changes, one of the
most obvious being a marked decrease in vote share going to the mainstream
parties whose domination of electoral politics used to be taken for granted,
along with an increase in votes going to more radical, populist contenders—
most (but not all) of them on the anti-immigrant right. These two changes are
widely assumed to be linked. Yet the potential impact of the populist radical
right on the electoral performance of (western) Europe’s other party families
may well be uneven. We use European Election Study survey data to explore
which parties (and party families) might be most vulnerable to seeing their
voters defect to the populist radical right. We find that, although it has become
commonplace to observe that it is the social democratic centre-left which is
most vulnerable in this respect, it is actually centre-right parties which, at this
point anyway, would seem to have most to lose. But they are not alone:
interestingly, the voters of radical left parties are also vulnerable to the appeal
of the radical right.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationContinuity and Change of Party Democracies in Europe
EditorsSebastian Bukow, Uwe Jun
Place of PublicationWiesbaden
PublisherSpringer Link
Chapter7
Pages169-201
Number of pages32
VolumePolitische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderhefte
Edition32
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-658-28988-1
ISBN (Print)978-3-658-28987-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 Feb 2020

Publication series

NamePolitische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderhefte book series (PVS)
PublisherSpringer
Volume32

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Cite this

Krouwel, A., Bale, T., & Tremlett, L. (2020). More or Less Vulnerable? Variation in the Extent to Which Mainstream Political Parties’ Voters Consider Voting for Radical Right Populist Parties. In S. Bukow, & U. Jun (Eds.), Continuity and Change of Party Democracies in Europe (32 ed., Vol. Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderhefte , pp. 169-201). (Politische Vierteljahresschrift Sonderhefte book series (PVS); Vol. 32). Wiesbaden: Springer Link. https://doi.org/https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-658-28988-1_7