Multi-Temporal Landslide Susceptibility Maps and Future Scenarios for Expected Land Cover Changes (Southern Apennines, Italy)

Human activities, including extensive land use practices, such as deforestation and intensive cultivation, may severely affect the landscape, and have caused important changes to the extent of natural forests during the last century in Southern Italy. Such changes had a strong influence on the frequency of occurrence of natural hazards, including landslides. Being one of the most significant control factors of slope movements, any variation in land cover pattern may determine changes in landslide distribution. The study area is the Rivo Basin which is located in Molise (Southern Apennines of Italy), a region severely affected by landslides. We prepared multi-temporal land cover and landslide inventory maps, aimed at developing different susceptibility maps to evaluate the effects of land cover changes in the predisposition to landslides. Based on the observed land cover trends in the study area, we simulated future scenarios of land cover in the attempt to assess potential future changes in landslide distribution and susceptibility. By investigating the relationship between the spatial pattern and distribution of past land cover settings and location factors (as elevation, slope, distance to settlements), we were able to calibrate a land cover change model to simulate future scenarios. The obtained results give important information both regarding the impact of past trends of land cover changes on landslide occurrence and possible future directions. They could be useful to provide insights toward a better land management for the study area, as well as for similar landslide-prone environments in Southern Italy, contributing to establish good practices for future landslide risk mitigation.