Multiregional disaster impact models: Recent advances and comparison of outcomes

This chapter provides an overview of several multiregional modelling approaches used for disaster impact analysis. The chapter specifically focuses on the multiregional supply-use model, the dynamic multiregional inoperability input-output model, the multiregional impact assessment model and the non-linear programming model. Whereas the first two approaches have been applied widely over the last years, the latter two are recently developed methods which aim to improve the estimation of a disruption in the economic system by, amongst others, allowing for a supply shock and spatial substitution effects. Our outcomes show significantly distinct results for the demand-driven multiregional supply-use model and the dynamic multiregional inoperability input-output model on the one hand, and for the non-linear programming model and the multiregional impact assessment model, on the other hand. Whereas for the former only negative impacts in all German regions and foreign countries are observed, the latter also shows positive impacts in several only indirectly impacted regions in addition to different negative impacts.