Narrowing the Gap: Explaining the Increasing Competitiveness of the Venezuelan Opposition

A.P.M. Krouwel, Y. Kutiyski

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

This article seeks to explain why electoral support for the Venezuelan opposition has increased substantially, using Venezuelan public opinion survey data from LAPOP and an opt-in sample collected through the online vote advice application Brújula Presidencial Venezuela. It analyzes why Venezuelans who had either voted for Chávez or abstained in 2006 defected and started to support the opposition in subsequent elections. It proposes several reasons: negative voter evaluations of the economy, concern for public safety, and dissatisfaction with Venezuelan democracy. While the finding that negative policy evaluations boost support for the opposition aligns with theoretical expectations, this study finds a strong relationship between having different evaluations of the quality of democracy and supporting Chávez, which shows that the advocacy of two competing visions of democracy by the incumbent and the opposition also affects voting patterns in Venezuela.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)71-97
JournalLatin American Politics and Society
Volume56
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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democracy
opposition
Venezuela
voter
study expectation
advocacy
evaluation
election
safety
public opinion
voting
economy
opinion survey
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Cite this

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abstract = "This article seeks to explain why electoral support for the Venezuelan opposition has increased substantially, using Venezuelan public opinion survey data from LAPOP and an opt-in sample collected through the online vote advice application Br{\'u}jula Presidencial Venezuela. It analyzes why Venezuelans who had either voted for Ch{\'a}vez or abstained in 2006 defected and started to support the opposition in subsequent elections. It proposes several reasons: negative voter evaluations of the economy, concern for public safety, and dissatisfaction with Venezuelan democracy. While the finding that negative policy evaluations boost support for the opposition aligns with theoretical expectations, this study finds a strong relationship between having different evaluations of the quality of democracy and supporting Ch{\'a}vez, which shows that the advocacy of two competing visions of democracy by the incumbent and the opposition also affects voting patterns in Venezuela.",
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Narrowing the Gap: Explaining the Increasing Competitiveness of the Venezuelan Opposition. / Krouwel, A.P.M.; Kutiyski, Y.

In: Latin American Politics and Society, Vol. 56, No. 4, 2014, p. 71-97.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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