Observing shifts in telecouplings driven by dietary patterns in developed countries

Influenced by concerns towards the environment, individual health or animal welfare, low-meat diets have emerged and spread in developed countries over the last decades and are expected to spread further among the population. Global studies demonstrate the potential of low-meat diets to reduce the pressure on environmental resources, comparing the amount of water, land, and CO2 emissions embodied in vegetal versus animal-based products. From a health perspective, scientists worldwide point out that low-meat diets should include an enhanced portion of vegetal sources that provide essential nutrients, otherwise derived from the consumption of animal-based products. Human-environment systems are substantially and increasingly connected over distances. Trade of food products contributes largely to these connections, driven not only by caloric needs but also by dietary preferences, such as low-meat diets. While reducing environmental pressures is a motivation for dietary change, it is not clear if shifts towards low-meat diets indeed result in reduced environmental pressures at the most vulnerable locations globally, or if they increase the burden. Based on data on daily consumption in developed countries, we identify the key food items that differentiate meat-rich diets from low-meat or no-meat diets (e.g. vegan). Then, we use trade-based data to geographically source these key food items and observe the telecoupling systems related to meat-rich, and low-meat diets. Using agricultural production data, we calculate land use requirements in the source countries to meet the demand from developed countries for food items involved in low-meat diets. Finally, we explore the impact of potential future diet changes on land telecouplings. Using fine scale data about food consumption, this study spotlights poorly known impacts of dietary change on land use. In a broader perspective, these findings question the legitimacy of distal sourcing of the preferred diets of developed countries.