Oily business: the role of oil and gas resources in the repression of nonviolent movements

The role of the Russian oligarchs in Russian politics and the war in Ukraine has become an increasingly popular subject of discussion. Discussing the role of merit-based oil and gas actors in conflict is not new –the power of these actors has fascinated the international community for decades. However, the impact of these type of actors on the repression of nonviolent resistance movements has only recently become a subject of study.
In this explorative study, I delve into the relation between oil and gas resources and resistance movements by applying previous research to the case study of Turkmenistan and the broader Central Asian region. The choice for this post-soviet region is a result of the extraordinary variance in resistance within the region, while the levels of repression, the government structure and resource-based economies are similar. This research is part of a broader research project on the factors that impact nonviolent resistance movements. Conclusions are predominantly based on a review of literature, interviews into the negative case study of Turkmenistan and preliminary conclusions on the case of Belarus and Kirgizstan.
Based on recent research (Girod, Stewart and Walters, 2018; Kirisci and Demirhan, 2019; Pinckney, 2020) and case studies, there seems to be tipping point in the level of oil and gas wealth, where medium levels increase economic welfare and democratization, whereas high levels facilitate repression and democratic backsliding.