On the reliability of composite analysis: an example of wet summers in North China

Lintao Li*, Albertus J. Dolman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

The validity of composite analysis is seldom discussed despite the fact that it can yield conflicting results. Our study confirms its validity by adding a reliability analysis to the classical composite analysis. Based on the signals extracted from composite analysis, 10 of the 14 wet summers in North China (1951–2020) can be “predicted” retrospectively. This study suggested the cyclonic anomaly over Mongolia at 500- and 850-hPa is closely associated with wet summers in North China. Interestingly, we found the most profound effects come from the Southern Hemisphere, with high confidence levels and large magnitude of the composite anomalies. These composite results are further cross-validated. We show that, based on the signals extracted from composite analysis, previously unseen wet summers in North China can be predicted with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) around 6%.

Original languageEnglish
Article number106881
Pages (from-to)1-10
Number of pages10
JournalATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
Volume292
Early online date19 Jun 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
A. J. Dolman recognizes the support of the NESSC Netherlands Earth System Sensitivity Centre. The two anonymous reviewers are acknowledged for their insightful comments, which greatly helped in improving the presentation of our results.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

  • Composite analysis
  • Cross-validation
  • North China
  • Reversibility
  • Wet summer

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