Abstract
This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year. © 2012 The Author(s).
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 97-116 |
Journal | Environmental and Resource Economics |
Volume | 53 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2012 |