On the uncertainty about the total economic impact of climate change

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Abstract

This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year. © 2012 The Author(s).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)97-116
JournalEnvironmental and Resource Economics
Volume53
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

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