One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict

H. Buhaug, J. Nordkvelle, T. Bernauer, T. Böhmelt, M. Brzoska, J. W. Busby, A. Ciccone, H. Fjelde, E. Gartzke, N. P. Gleditsch, J. A. Goldstone, H. Hegre, H. Holtermann, V. Koubi, J. S.A. Link, P.M. Link, P. Lujala, J. O′Loughlin, C. Raleigh, J. Scheffran & 6 others C. J. Schilling, T. G. Smith, O. M. Theisen, R. S.J. Tol, H. Urdal, N. von Uexkull

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)391-397
Number of pages7
JournalClimatic Change
Volume127
Issue number3-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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meta-analysis
climate
climate change
effect
conflict
scientific research

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Buhaug, H., Nordkvelle, J., Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Brzoska, M., Busby, J. W., ... von Uexkull, N. (2014). One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Climatic Change, 127(3-4), 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1
Buhaug, H. ; Nordkvelle, J. ; Bernauer, T. ; Böhmelt, T. ; Brzoska, M. ; Busby, J. W. ; Ciccone, A. ; Fjelde, H. ; Gartzke, E. ; Gleditsch, N. P. ; Goldstone, J. A. ; Hegre, H. ; Holtermann, H. ; Koubi, V. ; Link, J. S.A. ; Link, P.M. ; Lujala, P. ; O′Loughlin, J. ; Raleigh, C. ; Scheffran, J. ; Schilling, C. J. ; Smith, T. G. ; Theisen, O. M. ; Tol, R. S.J. ; Urdal, H. ; von Uexkull, N. / One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. In: Climatic Change. 2014 ; Vol. 127, No. 3-4. pp. 391-397.
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abstract = "A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.",
author = "H. Buhaug and J. Nordkvelle and T. Bernauer and T. B{\"o}hmelt and M. Brzoska and Busby, {J. W.} and A. Ciccone and H. Fjelde and E. Gartzke and Gleditsch, {N. P.} and Goldstone, {J. A.} and H. Hegre and H. Holtermann and V. Koubi and Link, {J. S.A.} and P.M. Link and P. Lujala and J. O′Loughlin and C. Raleigh and J. Scheffran and Schilling, {C. J.} and Smith, {T. G.} and Theisen, {O. M.} and Tol, {R. S.J.} and H. Urdal and {von Uexkull}, N.",
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Buhaug, H, Nordkvelle, J, Bernauer, T, Böhmelt, T, Brzoska, M, Busby, JW, Ciccone, A, Fjelde, H, Gartzke, E, Gleditsch, NP, Goldstone, JA, Hegre, H, Holtermann, H, Koubi, V, Link, JSA, Link, PM, Lujala, P, O′Loughlin, J, Raleigh, C, Scheffran, J, Schilling, CJ, Smith, TG, Theisen, OM, Tol, RSJ, Urdal, H & von Uexkull, N 2014, 'One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict' Climatic Change, vol. 127, no. 3-4, pp. 391-397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1

One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. / Buhaug, H.; Nordkvelle, J.; Bernauer, T.; Böhmelt, T.; Brzoska, M.; Busby, J. W.; Ciccone, A.; Fjelde, H.; Gartzke, E.; Gleditsch, N. P.; Goldstone, J. A.; Hegre, H.; Holtermann, H.; Koubi, V.; Link, J. S.A.; Link, P.M.; Lujala, P.; O′Loughlin, J.; Raleigh, C.; Scheffran, J.; Schilling, C. J.; Smith, T. G.; Theisen, O. M.; Tol, R. S.J.; Urdal, H.; von Uexkull, N.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 127, No. 3-4, 2014, p. 391-397.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict

AU - Buhaug, H.

AU - Nordkvelle, J.

AU - Bernauer, T.

AU - Böhmelt, T.

AU - Brzoska, M.

AU - Busby, J. W.

AU - Ciccone, A.

AU - Fjelde, H.

AU - Gartzke, E.

AU - Gleditsch, N. P.

AU - Goldstone, J. A.

AU - Hegre, H.

AU - Holtermann, H.

AU - Koubi, V.

AU - Link, J. S.A.

AU - Link, P.M.

AU - Lujala, P.

AU - O′Loughlin, J.

AU - Raleigh, C.

AU - Scheffran, J.

AU - Schilling, C. J.

AU - Smith, T. G.

AU - Theisen, O. M.

AU - Tol, R. S.J.

AU - Urdal, H.

AU - von Uexkull, N.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

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Buhaug H, Nordkvelle J, Bernauer T, Böhmelt T, Brzoska M, Busby JW et al. One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Climatic Change. 2014;127(3-4):391-397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1