Panel data models for socioeconomic studies in crime and education

This dissertation consists of three chapters in which econometric methodologies are being applied to the fields of criminology and education. Chapter 1 proposes a two-step estimation procedure for a dynamic factor model to analyze the relationship between education participation and national unemployment, and to subsequently forecast the number of students via a cluster analysis. The performance of the proposed methodology is confirmed by a simulation study. The empirical results indicate that the number of students in parttime education covaries more strongly with unemployment than those in fulltime education. Chapter 2 makes use of a logistic panel data model to investigate to what extent declining macroeconomic circumstances have an impact on individual criminal behavior and whether that is differentiated by marital status and parenthood. The results indicate that decreasing consumer confidence leads to a higher probability of committing crime, but this is nullified for married individuals. Chapter 3 develops a panel data model with stochastic processes to empirically verify the possible existence of the European crime drop. The results indicate that a cross-national crime drop exists, and each country relies on it to its own extent.