Population and trends in the global mean temperature

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population distribution and the trend in the temperature. I show that the trend in the global area-weighted average surface air temperature is different in key details from the population-weighted trend. I extend the index to include urbanization and the urban heat island effect. This substantially changes the trend again. I further extend the index to include international migration, but this has a minor impact on the trend.

LanguageEnglish
Pages121-135
Number of pages15
JournalAtmosfera
Volume30
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Fingerprint

temperature
population distribution
international migration
heat island
trend
inflation
urbanization
surface temperature
air temperature
index
method
population trend
price
effect

Keywords

  • Fisher index
  • JEL Classification: Q54
  • Population-weighted temperature trend

Cite this

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abstract = "The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population distribution and the trend in the temperature. I show that the trend in the global area-weighted average surface air temperature is different in key details from the population-weighted trend. I extend the index to include urbanization and the urban heat island effect. This substantially changes the trend again. I further extend the index to include international migration, but this has a minor impact on the trend.",
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Population and trends in the global mean temperature. / Tol, Richard S.J.

In: Atmosfera, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2017, p. 121-135.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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