Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Haibo Du; Lisa V. Alexander; Markus G. Donat; Tanya Lippmann; Arvind Srivastava; Jim Salinger; Andries Kruger; Gwangyong Choi; Hong S. He; Fumiaki Fujibe; Matilde Rusticucci; Banzragch Nandintsetseg; Rodrigo Manzanas; Shafiqur Rehman; Farhat Abbas; Panmao Zhai; Ibouraïma Yabi; Michael C. Stambaugh; Shengzhong Wang; Altangerel Batbold; Priscilla Teles de Oliveira; Muhammad Adrees; Wei Hou; Shengwei Zong; Claudio Moises Santos e Silva; Paulo Sergio Lucio; Zhengfang Wu

doi:10.1029/2019GL081898

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Haibo Du, Lisa V. Alexander, Markus G. Donat, Tanya Lippmann, Arvind Srivastava, Jim Salinger, Andries Kruger, Gwangyong Choi, Hong S. He, Fumiaki Fujibe, Matilde Rusticucci, Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Rodrigo Manzanas, Shafiqur Rehman, Farhat Abbas, Panmao Zhai, Ibouraïma Yabi, Michael C. Stambaugh, Shengzhong Wang, Altangerel BatboldPriscilla Teles de Oliveira, Muhammad Adrees, Wei Hou, Shengwei Zong, Claudio Moises Santos e Silva, Paulo Sergio Lucio, Zhengfang Wu^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Climate

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Abstract

Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	6041-6049
Number of pages	9
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	46
Issue number	11
Early online date	21 May 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL081898
Publication status	Published - 16 Jun 2019

Funding

Data Set names: the CMIP5 data set (http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/), the GHCND data set (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcn-daily-description), the ECA&D data set (https://www.ecad.eu/), the USHCN data set (http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ftp/ushcn_daily/), and the data set for Canada (http://climate.weather.gc.ca/). Observed data set is available online (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2573295). This work is jointly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFA0602301), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601052), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC and 20180520098JH), the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ram?n y Cajal 2017 (RYC-2017-22964), the EU Horizon 2020 EUCP project (776613), and National University of Mongolia (P2017-2504).

Funders	Funder number
National Key R&D Program of China	2016YFA0602301
National University of Mongolia	P2017‐2504
Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province	20190201291JC, 20180520098JH
Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ram?n y Cajal
Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal	RYC‐2017‐22964
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
National Natural Science Foundation of China	41601052
Horizon 2020	776613

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1029/2019GL081898

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions andFinal published version, 2.89 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

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Du, H., Alexander, L. V., Donat, M. G., Lippmann, T., Srivastava, A., Salinger, J., Kruger, A., Choi, G., He, H. S., Fujibe, F., Rusticucci, M., Nandintsetseg, B., Manzanas, R., Rehman, S., Abbas, F., Zhai, P., Yabi, I., Stambaugh, M. C., Wang, S., ... Wu, Z. (2019). Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(11), 6041-6049. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL081898

@article{d697e438e0ed48b1bb14265c5d7cc307,

title = "Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally",

abstract = "Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5\%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.",

author = "Haibo Du and Alexander, \{Lisa V.\} and Donat, \{Markus G.\} and Tanya Lippmann and Arvind Srivastava and Jim Salinger and Andries Kruger and Gwangyong Choi and He, \{Hong S.\} and Fumiaki Fujibe and Matilde Rusticucci and Banzragch Nandintsetseg and Rodrigo Manzanas and Shafiqur Rehman and Farhat Abbas and Panmao Zhai and Iboura{\"i}ma Yabi and Stambaugh, \{Michael C.\} and Shengzhong Wang and Altangerel Batbold and \{de Oliveira\}, \{Priscilla Teles\} and Muhammad Adrees and Wei Hou and Shengwei Zong and \{Santos e Silva\}, \{Claudio Moises\} and Lucio, \{Paulo Sergio\} and Zhengfang Wu",

year = "2019",

month = jun,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2019GL081898",

language = "English",

volume = "46",

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journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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Du, H, Alexander, LV, Donat, MG, Lippmann, T, Srivastava, A, Salinger, J, Kruger, A, Choi, G, He, HS, Fujibe, F, Rusticucci, M, Nandintsetseg, B, Manzanas, R, Rehman, S, Abbas, F, Zhai, P, Yabi, I, Stambaugh, MC, Wang, S, Batbold, A, de Oliveira, PT, Adrees, M, Hou, W, Zong, S, Santos e Silva, CM, Lucio, PS & Wu, Z 2019, 'Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 46, no. 11, pp. 6041-6049. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL081898

TY - JOUR

T1 - Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

AU - Du, Haibo

AU - Alexander, Lisa V.

AU - Donat, Markus G.

AU - Lippmann, Tanya

AU - Srivastava, Arvind

AU - Salinger, Jim

AU - Kruger, Andries

AU - Choi, Gwangyong

AU - He, Hong S.

AU - Fujibe, Fumiaki

AU - Rusticucci, Matilde

AU - Nandintsetseg, Banzragch

AU - Manzanas, Rodrigo

AU - Rehman, Shafiqur

AU - Abbas, Farhat

AU - Zhai, Panmao

AU - Yabi, Ibouraïma

AU - Stambaugh, Michael C.

AU - Wang, Shengzhong

AU - Batbold, Altangerel

AU - de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles

AU - Adrees, Muhammad

AU - Hou, Wei

AU - Zong, Shengwei

AU - Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises

AU - Lucio, Paulo Sergio

AU - Wu, Zhengfang

PY - 2019/6/16

Y1 - 2019/6/16

N2 - Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.

AB - Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.

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DO - 10.1029/2019GL081898

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85067702423

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 46

SP - 6041

EP - 6049

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 11

ER -

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

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