Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students

David D. Ebert; Claudia Buntrock; Philippe Mortier; Randy Auerbach; Kiona K. Weisel; Ronald C. Kessler; Pim Cuijpers; Jennifer G. Green; Glenn Kiekens; Matthew K. Nock; Koen Demyttenaere; Ronny Bruffaerts

doi:10.1002/da.22867

Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students

David D. Ebert^*
, Claudia Buntrock
, Philippe Mortier
, Randy Auerbach
, Kiona K. Weisel
, Ronald C. Kessler
, Pim Cuijpers
, Jennifer G. Green
, Glenn Kiekens
, Matthew K. Nock
, Koen Demyttenaere
, Ronny Bruffaerts

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND:
Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden.
AIMS:
To assess 1-year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD-incidence in a representative sample of students.
METHOD:
Prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: n = 2,519, 1-year follow-up: n = 958) RESULTS: The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual-level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population-level baseline predictors were history of childhood-adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12-month mental disorder. Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup).
CONCLUSIONS:
Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	294-304
Number of pages	11
Journal	Depression and Anxiety
Volume	36
Issue number	4
Early online date	6 Dec 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22867
Publication status	Published - Apr 2019

Bibliographical note

FOCUS ON: DEPRESSION DIVERSITY IN TIME AND PLACE

Funding

The Leuven College Survey was carried out in conjunction with the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) survey initiative and is a part of the World Mental Health International College Student project. The WMH survey is supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; R01MH070884), the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Pfizer Foundation, the US Public Health Service (R13-MH066849, R01-MH069864, and R01 DA016558), the Fogarty International Center (FIRCA R03-TW006481), the Pan American Health Organization, Eli Lilly and Company, Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical, GlaxoSmithKline, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. A complete list of all within-country and cross-national WMH publications can be found at http://www.hcp.med.harvard.edu/wmh/. In Belgium specifically, these activities were supported by the Belgian Fund for Scientific Research (11N0514N/11N0516N/1114717N), the King Baudouin Foundation (2014-J2140150-102905), and Eli Lilly (IIT-H6U-BX-I002). In Germany, the preparation of this paper was funded by BARMER.

Funders	Funder number
Pfizer Foundation
Pan American Health Organization
World Health Organization World Mental Health
BARMER
GlaxoSmithKline
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical
National Institute of Mental Health	R13MH066849, R01MH069864, R01MH070884
U.S. Public Health Service	R01 DA016558, R13-MH066849, R01-MH069864
Koning Boudewijnstichting	2014-J2140150-102905
Belgian Fund for Scientific Research	11N0514N/11N0516N/1114717N
Eli Lilly and Company	IIT-H6U-BX-I002
Fogarty International Center	R03TW006481

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

depression
epidemiology
health services
mood disorders
suicide/self-harm

Access to Document

10.1002/da.22867

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/da.22867

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Cite this

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title = "Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden. AIMS: To assess 1-year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD-incidence in a representative sample of students. METHOD: Prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: n = 2,519, 1-year follow-up: n = 958) RESULTS: The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9\% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual-level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population-level baseline predictors were history of childhood-adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12-month mental disorder. Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1\% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10\% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5\% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup). CONCLUSIONS: Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.",

keywords = "depression, epidemiology, health services, mood disorders, suicide/self-harm",

author = "Ebert, \{David D.\} and Claudia Buntrock and Philippe Mortier and Randy Auerbach and Weisel, \{Kiona K.\} and Kessler, \{Ronald C.\} and Pim Cuijpers and Green, \{Jennifer G.\} and Glenn Kiekens and Nock, \{Matthew K.\} and Koen Demyttenaere and Ronny Bruffaerts",

note = "FOCUS ON: DEPRESSION DIVERSITY IN TIME AND PLACE",

year = "2019",

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doi = "10.1002/da.22867",

language = "English",

volume = "36",

pages = "294--304",

journal = "Depression and Anxiety",

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AU - Ebert, David D.

AU - Buntrock, Claudia

AU - Mortier, Philippe

AU - Auerbach, Randy

AU - Weisel, Kiona K.

AU - Kessler, Ronald C.

AU - Cuijpers, Pim

AU - Green, Jennifer G.

AU - Kiekens, Glenn

AU - Nock, Matthew K.

AU - Demyttenaere, Koen

AU - Bruffaerts, Ronny

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N2 - BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden. AIMS: To assess 1-year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD-incidence in a representative sample of students. METHOD: Prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: n = 2,519, 1-year follow-up: n = 958) RESULTS: The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual-level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population-level baseline predictors were history of childhood-adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12-month mental disorder. Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup). CONCLUSIONS: Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.

AB - BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden. AIMS: To assess 1-year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD-incidence in a representative sample of students. METHOD: Prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: n = 2,519, 1-year follow-up: n = 958) RESULTS: The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual-level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population-level baseline predictors were history of childhood-adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12-month mental disorder. Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup). CONCLUSIONS: Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.

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KW - epidemiology

KW - health services

KW - mood disorders

KW - suicide/self-harm

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ER -

Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Persistent URL (handle)

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