Predictive modelling

Predictive modeling is a technique to predict the location of archaeological sites in uninvestigated areas that has been used since the 1970s to aid spatial planning, for example, in cultural resource management. Predictive modeling is also used to develop and test scientific models of human locational behavior, as it is based on either statistical extrapolation of known archaeological data or explanatory models of site location preference. In practice, a number of methods can be used in predictive modeling, and the resulting maps of predicted site density can vary in accuracy. The main difficulties in producing accurate predictive models are coupled with the resolution and representativeness of the archaeological and nonarchaeological datasets used, the theoretical frameworks underlying the models, and the lack of model testing. Nonetheless, predictive models are very useful to provide basic protection to areas of high sensitivity, and can save costs for archaeological investigations.