Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh

J. Verschuur; E. E. Koks; A. Haque; J. W. Hall

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102179

Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh

J. Verschuur^*, E. E. Koks, A. Haque, J. W. Hall

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.

Original language	English
Article number	102179
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Number of pages	11
Journal	Global Environmental Change
Volume	65
Early online date	2 Oct 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102179
Publication status	Published - Nov 2020

Funding

All python code to do the analysis can be requested from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. We thank Kazi Mita and Alauddin Al Azad for running the Delft-3D model for TC Sidr including future climate projections. We would like to acknowledge Brian Walsh and Stephane Hallegatte for providing the code to implement the welfare model and Steven Rubinyi and Mohammed Adnan for useful discussions. JV acknowledges funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under grant number EP/R513295/1 .

Funders	Funder number
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council	EP/R513295/1
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Keywords

Bangladesh
Disaster risk reduction
Resilience
Sustainable development

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102179

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title = "Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh",

abstract = "Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7\% of the asset losses, but 42\% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70\%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.",

keywords = "Bangladesh, Disaster risk reduction, Resilience, Sustainable development",

author = "J. Verschuur and Koks, \{E. E.\} and A. Haque and Hall, \{J. W.\}",

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T2 - A case study for coastal Bangladesh

AU - Verschuur, J.

AU - Koks, E. E.

AU - Haque, A.

AU - Hall, J. W.

PY - 2020/11

Y1 - 2020/11

N2 - Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.

AB - Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind.

KW - Bangladesh

KW - Disaster risk reduction

KW - Resilience

KW - Sustainable development

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Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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