Process-based modelling of fluvial system response to rapid climate change I: model formulation and generic applications.

A comprehensive model strategy is presented which enables the prediction of catchment hydrology and the dynamics of sediment transport within the alluvial river systems draining these catchments. The model is driven by AGCM-based weather predictions, generalised by using a stochastic weather generator, and by palaeo-climate and palaeo-environment reconstructions. The model consists of a lumped hydrological rainfall-runoff model, calibrated against modern daily discharge data and the AGCM control experiment, combined with simple modules for hillslope erosion, river channel geometry, sediment transport and fluvial planform type. We apply the model to a conceptualised climatic cycle, and investigate the response to brief climatic events. Model predictions are discussed and compared to reconstructed river behaviour. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.