Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model

John M. Van Trijp

Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model

John M. Van Trijp^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Organization Sciences

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The Bow Tie is a well known model in risk analysis and is widely used in crises and emergency management. It shows where LOD's can be introduced to either prevent a LOC or contain the consequences. On the other hand organizational resilience is of major importance for emergency response organizations to be ready for a LOC. A major disadvantage of the Bow Tie model is its one way approach: the model contains no feedback loop to learn from previous incidents. It is postulated a feedback loop should be part of a Bow Tie Model. As this feedback loop is described by the Unique Dynamic Operational Resilience f(R_ero)_UV factor a model is postulated to describe the dynamic interaction between risk and resilience. It shows how identified risks and organizational resilience influence the striking capabilities of emergency response organizations in relation to the emergence of a crises. This model is called: "Propeller" and is mathematically described by (x² + y²)² = f(R _ero)_max ² .(x² - y²).

Original language	English
Title of host publication	11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
Pages	6882-6889
Number of pages	8
Volume	8
Publication status	Published - 2012
Event	11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012 - Helsinki, Finland Duration: 25 Jun 2012 → 29 Jun 2012

Conference

Conference	11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
Country/Territory	Finland
City	Helsinki
Period	25/06/12 → 29/06/12

Keywords

Model
Propeller
Resilience
Risks

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model",

abstract = "The Bow Tie is a well known model in risk analysis and is widely used in crises and emergency management. It shows where LOD's can be introduced to either prevent a LOC or contain the consequences. On the other hand organizational resilience is of major importance for emergency response organizations to be ready for a LOC. A major disadvantage of the Bow Tie model is its one way approach: the model contains no feedback loop to learn from previous incidents. It is postulated a feedback loop should be part of a Bow Tie Model. As this feedback loop is described by the Unique Dynamic Operational Resilience f(Rero)UV factor a model is postulated to describe the dynamic interaction between risk and resilience. It shows how identified risks and organizational resilience influence the striking capabilities of emergency response organizations in relation to the emergence of a crises. This model is called: {"}Propeller{"} and is mathematically described by (x2 + y2)2 = f(R ero)max 2 .(x2 - y2).",

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author = "{Van Trijp}, {John M.}",

year = "2012",

language = "English",

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booktitle = "11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012",

note = "11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012 ; Conference date: 25-06-2012 Through 29-06-2012",

}

Van Trijp, JM 2012, Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model. in 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012. vol. 8, pp. 6882-6889, 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012, Helsinki, Finland, 25/06/12.

Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model. / Van Trijp, John M.
11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012. Vol. 8 2012. p. 6882-6889.

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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AU - Van Trijp, John M.

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N2 - The Bow Tie is a well known model in risk analysis and is widely used in crises and emergency management. It shows where LOD's can be introduced to either prevent a LOC or contain the consequences. On the other hand organizational resilience is of major importance for emergency response organizations to be ready for a LOC. A major disadvantage of the Bow Tie model is its one way approach: the model contains no feedback loop to learn from previous incidents. It is postulated a feedback loop should be part of a Bow Tie Model. As this feedback loop is described by the Unique Dynamic Operational Resilience f(Rero)UV factor a model is postulated to describe the dynamic interaction between risk and resilience. It shows how identified risks and organizational resilience influence the striking capabilities of emergency response organizations in relation to the emergence of a crises. This model is called: "Propeller" and is mathematically described by (x2 + y2)2 = f(R ero)max 2 .(x2 - y2).

AB - The Bow Tie is a well known model in risk analysis and is widely used in crises and emergency management. It shows where LOD's can be introduced to either prevent a LOC or contain the consequences. On the other hand organizational resilience is of major importance for emergency response organizations to be ready for a LOC. A major disadvantage of the Bow Tie model is its one way approach: the model contains no feedback loop to learn from previous incidents. It is postulated a feedback loop should be part of a Bow Tie Model. As this feedback loop is described by the Unique Dynamic Operational Resilience f(Rero)UV factor a model is postulated to describe the dynamic interaction between risk and resilience. It shows how identified risks and organizational resilience influence the striking capabilities of emergency response organizations in relation to the emergence of a crises. This model is called: "Propeller" and is mathematically described by (x2 + y2)2 = f(R ero)max 2 .(x2 - y2).

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KW - Resilience

KW - Risks

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Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

UN SDGs

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