Propelling beyond the bow tie: An emergent dynamic risk - Resilience model

John M. Van Trijp*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The Bow Tie is a well known model in risk analysis and is widely used in crises and emergency management. It shows where LOD's can be introduced to either prevent a LOC or contain the consequences. On the other hand organizational resilience is of major importance for emergency response organizations to be ready for a LOC. A major disadvantage of the Bow Tie model is its one way approach: the model contains no feedback loop to learn from previous incidents. It is postulated a feedback loop should be part of a Bow Tie Model. As this feedback loop is described by the Unique Dynamic Operational Resilience f(Rero)UV factor a model is postulated to describe the dynamic interaction between risk and resilience. It shows how identified risks and organizational resilience influence the striking capabilities of emergency response organizations in relation to the emergence of a crises. This model is called: "Propeller" and is mathematically described by (x2 + y2)2 = f(R ero)max 2 .(x2 - y2).

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
Pages6882-6889
Number of pages8
Volume8
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Event11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012 - Helsinki, Finland
Duration: 25 Jun 201229 Jun 2012

Conference

Conference11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
CountryFinland
CityHelsinki
Period25/06/1229/06/12

Keywords

  • Model
  • Propeller
  • Resilience
  • Risks

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