Protected area planning to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain future

Richard Schuster*, Rachel Buxton, Jeffrey O. Hanson, Allison D. Binley, Jeremy Pittman, Vivitskaia Tulloch, Frank A. La Sorte, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Peter H. Verburg, Amanda D. Rodewald, Scott Wilson, Hugh P. Possingham, Joseph R. Bennett

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. We used a novel hierarchical optimization approach to identify priority areas for expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted for such risks while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on the minimum set problem, where the objective is to reach species distribution protection targets while accounting for 1 constraint, such as land cost or area. We expanded this approach to include multiple objectives accounting for risk in the problem formulation by treating each risk layer as a separate objective in the problem formulation. Reducing exposure to these risks required expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, and incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase (2.52%) in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when they bordered nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning. Planeación de las áreas protegidas para conservar la biodiversidad en un futuro incierto.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere14048
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
JournalConservation Biology
Volume37
Issue number3
Early online date20 Jan 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank A. Johnston, P. Arcese, S. Cooke, and L. Fahrig for helpful discussions and at least 6 anonymous reviewers for valuable feedback on earlier versions of this paper. R.S. was funded by the Liber Ero Fellowship Program. J.R.B. was funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant 2016–06147 and Environment and Climate Change Canada Grant GCXE19S058.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Funding

We thank A. Johnston, P. Arcese, S. Cooke, and L. Fahrig for helpful discussions and at least 6 anonymous reviewers for valuable feedback on earlier versions of this paper. R.S. was funded by the Liber Ero Fellowship Program. J.R.B. was funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant 2016–06147 and Environment and Climate Change Canada Grant GCXE19S058.

Keywords

  • biodiversidad
  • biodiversity
  • cambio climático
  • climate change
  • gestión
  • governance
  • land use
  • optimización
  • optimization
  • protected areas
  • riesgo
  • risk
  • uso de suelo
  • áreas protegidas

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