Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors

Jasper Verschuur; Alberto Fernández-Pérez; Evelyn Mühlhofer; Sadhana Nirandjan; Edoardo Borgomeo; Olivia Becher; Asimina Voskaki; Edward J. Oughton; Andrej Stankovski; Salvatore F. Greco; Elco E. Koks; Raghav Pant; Jim W. Hall

doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331

Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors

Jasper Verschuur^*, Alberto Fernández-Pérez, Evelyn Mühlhofer, Sadhana Nirandjan, Edoardo Borgomeo, Olivia Becher, Asimina Voskaki, Edward J. Oughton, Andrej Stankovski, Salvatore F. Greco, Elco E. Koks, Raghav Pant, Jim W. Hall

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Review article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Infrastructure systems are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards, such as flooding, wildfires, cyclones and temperature fluctuations. Responding to these threats in a proportionate and targeted way requires quantitative analysis of climate risks, which underpins infrastructure resilience and adaptation strategies. The aim of this paper is to review the recent developments in quantitative climate risk analysis for key infrastructure sectors, including water and wastewater, telecommunications, health and education, transport (seaports, airports, road, rail and inland waterways), and energy (generation, transmission and distribution). We identify several overarching research gaps, which include the (i) limited consideration of multi-hazard and multi-infrastructure interactions within a single modelling framework, (ii) scarcity of studies focusing on certain combinations of climate hazards and infrastructure types, (iii) difficulties in scaling-up climate risk analysis across geographies, (iv) increasing challenge of validating models, (v) untapped potential of further knowledge spillovers across sectors, (vi) need to embed equity considerations into modelling frameworks, and (vii) quantifying a wider set of impact metrics. We argue that a cross-sectoral systems approach enables knowledge sharing and a better integration of infrastructure interdependencies between multiple sectors.

Original language	English
Article number	e0000331
Pages (from-to)	1-21
Number of pages	21
Journal	PLOS Climate
Volume	3
Issue number	4
Early online date	4 Apr 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331
Publication status	Published - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Verschuur et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Funding

J.V. acknowledges funding from the Oxford Martin School Programme on Systemic Resilience and from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under grant number EP/W524311/1. E.E.K. was supported by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) (Grant No. VI. Veni.194.033). E.E.K., J.W.H., S.N. and R.P. received funding from EU-H2020 MIRACA, grant no. 101004174. J.W.H and R.P. also received support from the Climate Compatible Growth Programme funded by the UK FCDO. A.FP. acknowledges funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities under grant number FPU2019-00532. A.J. and S.F.G. acknowledge funding from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Funders	Funder number
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Bundesamt für Energie
Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council	EP/W524311/1
EU-H2020 MIRACA	101004174
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades	FPU2019-00532

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Verschuur, J., Fernández-Pérez, A., Mühlhofer, E., Nirandjan, S., Borgomeo, E., Becher, O., Voskaki, A., Oughton, E. J., Stankovski, A., Greco, S. F., Koks, E. E., Pant, R., & Hall, J. W. (2024). Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors. PLOS Climate, 3(4), 1-21. Article e0000331. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331

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abstract = "Infrastructure systems are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards, such as flooding, wildfires, cyclones and temperature fluctuations. Responding to these threats in a proportionate and targeted way requires quantitative analysis of climate risks, which underpins infrastructure resilience and adaptation strategies. The aim of this paper is to review the recent developments in quantitative climate risk analysis for key infrastructure sectors, including water and wastewater, telecommunications, health and education, transport (seaports, airports, road, rail and inland waterways), and energy (generation, transmission and distribution). We identify several overarching research gaps, which include the (i) limited consideration of multi-hazard and multi-infrastructure interactions within a single modelling framework, (ii) scarcity of studies focusing on certain combinations of climate hazards and infrastructure types, (iii) difficulties in scaling-up climate risk analysis across geographies, (iv) increasing challenge of validating models, (v) untapped potential of further knowledge spillovers across sectors, (vi) need to embed equity considerations into modelling frameworks, and (vii) quantifying a wider set of impact metrics. We argue that a cross-sectoral systems approach enables knowledge sharing and a better integration of infrastructure interdependencies between multiple sectors.",

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Verschuur, J, Fernández-Pérez, A, Mühlhofer, E, Nirandjan, S, Borgomeo, E, Becher, O, Voskaki, A, Oughton, EJ, Stankovski, A, Greco, SF, Koks, EE, Pant, R & Hall, JW 2024, 'Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors', PLOS Climate, vol. 3, no. 4, e0000331, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331

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Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors

Abstract

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