TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantifying type I and type II errors in decision-making under uncertainty
T2 - The case of GM crops
AU - Ansink, Erik
AU - Wesseler, Justus
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - In a recent paper, Hennessy and Moschini (American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2): 308-323, 2006) analyse the interactions between scientific uncertainty and costly regulatory actions. We use their model to analyse the costs of making type I and type II errors, in the context of the possible introduction of GM crops. We demonstrate that the costs of making a type I or type II error should be calculated as the difference in costs between choosing the right action immediately and choosing the right action only after the state of nature has been revealed. The importance of this result for the discussion on the precautionary principle is briefly examined.
AB - In a recent paper, Hennessy and Moschini (American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2): 308-323, 2006) analyse the interactions between scientific uncertainty and costly regulatory actions. We use their model to analyse the costs of making type I and type II errors, in the context of the possible introduction of GM crops. We demonstrate that the costs of making a type I or type II error should be calculated as the difference in costs between choosing the right action immediately and choosing the right action only after the state of nature has been revealed. The importance of this result for the discussion on the precautionary principle is briefly examined.
KW - GM crops
KW - Irreversibility
KW - Type I and type II errors
KW - Uncertainty
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84867138709
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84867138709&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s12076-009-0023-y
DO - 10.1007/s12076-009-0023-y
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84867138709
SN - 1864-4031
VL - 2
SP - 61
EP - 66
JO - Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences
JF - Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences
IS - 1
ER -
