TY - JOUR
T1 - Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
AU - Cohen, Judah
AU - Screen, James A.
AU - Furtado, Jason C.
AU - Barlow, Mathew
AU - Whittleston, David
AU - Coumou, Dim
AU - Francis, Jennifer
AU - Dethloff, Klaus
AU - Entekhabi, Dara
AU - Overland, James
AU - Jones, Justin
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average-a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred research activities that reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather: changes in storm tracks, the jet stream, and planetary waves and their associated energy propagation. Through changes in these key atmospheric features, it is possible, in principle, for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather. However, because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncertainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain. We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding of the influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events.
AB - The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average-a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred research activities that reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather: changes in storm tracks, the jet stream, and planetary waves and their associated energy propagation. Through changes in these key atmospheric features, it is possible, in principle, for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather. However, because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncertainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain. We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding of the influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events.
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U2 - 10.1038/ngeo2234
DO - 10.1038/ngeo2234
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:84906826150
SN - 1752-0894
VL - 7
SP - 627
EP - 637
JO - Nature Geoscience
JF - Nature Geoscience
IS - 9
ER -