Reframing the climate debate: The origins and diffusion of net zero pledges

H. Van Coppenolle, M. Blondeel, T. Van de Graaf

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

© 2022 The Authors. Global Policy published by Durham University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Achieving net zero emissions has rapidly become the dominant long-term objective guiding national climate policies. At the end of 2018, only 24 countries were considering or had adopted long-term net zero targets. By the end of 2021, this had climbed to almost 150 countries, covering 89 per cent of global carbon emissions. In this article, we trace the origins and diffusion of net zero pledges through the lens of international norm theory. Drawing on a newly compiled database of national net zero targets, our analysis highlights the critical role played by climate scientists, transnational advocacy networks, and norm entrepreneurs in articulating the norm of net zero emissions. The IPCC's fifth assessment report was foundational, by introducing the concept of a cumulative carbon budget, allowing translation of abstract temperature goals into more actionable net zero targets. The norm of net zero has been institutionalised at the global political level in the period 2015–2018 and cascaded through the international system in 2019–2020. Yet, it remains subject to various forms of contestation, most notably regarding validity, fairness, scope, and implementation. The norm is now at a critical stage in its lifecycle that will decide whether it gets institutionalised or suffers backsliding and even erosion.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)48-60
JournalGlobal Policy
Volume14
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes

Funding

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the panel session ‘Contested Discourses of Sustainable Energy Transitions’ at the ECPR General Conference, Virtual Event, 30 August – 3 September 2021. We thank the participants, and especially Marie-Claire Brisbois, for their constructive comments. Our thanks is also extended to Jessica Green, Kathleen Hancock, Amy Janzwood and the other participants to the virtual ‘Fossil fuel supply and the climate crisis’ panel at the ISA Annual Convention of March 28th - April 2nd, 2022 where a second version was presented. We would also like to thank the two anonymous peer reviewers as well as the Global Policy editor for their helpful comments on earlier versions of the paper.

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