Abstract
Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 3173-3205 |
| Number of pages | 33 |
| Journal | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Volume | 24 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| Early online date | 23 Sept 2024 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:Copyright: © 2024 Anne F. Van Loon et al.
Funding
Anne F. Van Loon, Alessia Matan\u00F3, Ruben Weesie, Heidi D. Mendoza, and Marlies H. Barendrecht were funded by the European Union (ERC Starting Grant, PerfectSTORM, grant agreement no. 948601). Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, and Germano G. Ribeiro Neto were supported by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) and the Interdisciplinary Research and Education Fund (INREF) of Wageningen University, the Netherlands (grant no. W07.30318.016). Minchao Wu was supported by the Swedish National Space Agency (SNSA; grant no. 2021-00111), the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS; grant no. 2022-00643), and Stiftelsen Oscar och Lili Lamms Minne (grant no. FO2022-0016). Viorica Nagavciuc was partially supported by a BMBF project and acknowledges funding via \u201CK\u00FCnstliche Intelligenz in der zivilen Sicherheitsforschung II\u201D of the BMBF in the framework of \u201CForschung f\u00FCr die zivile Sicherheit\u201D of the German Federal Government ( https://www.sifo.de/sifo/de/home/home_node.html , last access: 7 September 2024). She was also partially supported by a grant of the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization, under \u201CRomania's National Recovery and Resilience Plan\u201D funded by the EU NextGenerationEU programme, project \u201CCompound extreme events from a long-term perspective and their impact on forest growth dynamics\u201D (CExForD) (grant no. 760074/23.05.2023; code 287/30.11.2022; within Pillar III, Component C9, Investment 8). Ana Bastos was funded by the European Union (ERC Starting Grant, ForExD, grant agreement no. 101039567). Margaret Garcia was supported by a National Science Foundation CAREER grant: Balancing Local and Systemic Resilience in the Western Water Network (CIS-1942370). Sina Khatami was jointly supported by a European Research Council (ERC) consolidator grant (grant no. 771678; HydroSocialExtremes), the EU-funded TRANSCEND project (grant no. 101084110), the Swedish Mannerfelt fond and Ahlmanns fond of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research (Sweden), and the HS&HK philanthropic fund (TO-53455-AUS, Australia). Micha Werner and Riccardo Biella were partially funded by the I-CISK project under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 101037293). Anastasiya Shyrokaya received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sk\u0142odowska-Curie Actions (grant no. 956396; EDIPI Project). This research has been supported by the European Union (ERC Starting Grant, PerfectSTORM (grant no. 948601); ERC Starting Grant, ForExD (grant no. 101039567); ERC Consolidator Grant, HydroSocialExtremes (grant no. 771678)), EU Horizon 2020 (grant nos. 101084110 and 101037293), EU Marie Sk\u0142odowska-Curie Actions (grant no. 956396), NWO and INREF (grant no. W07.30318.016), SNSA (grant no. 2021-00111), FORMAS (grant no. 2022-00643), Stiftelsen Oscar och Lili Lamms Minne (grant no. FO2022-0016), BMBF, NextGenerationEU (grant no. 760074/23.05.2023; code 287/30.11.2022), an NSF CAREER grant (CIS-1942370), Swedish Mannerfelt fond and Ahlmanns fond of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research (Sweden), and the HS&HK philanthropic fund (TO-53455-AUS, Australia). Elena Mondino was involved in earlier discussions related to this paper. Anne F. Van Loon, Alessia Matan\u00F3, Ruben Weesie, Heidi D. Mendoza, and Marlies H. Barendrecht were funded by the European Union (ERC Starting Grant, PerfectSTORM, grant agreement no. 948601). Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, and Germano G. Ribeiro Neto were supported by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) and the Interdisciplinary Research and Education Fund (INREF) of Wageningen University, the Netherlands (grant no. W07.30318.016). Minchao Wu was supported by the Swedish National Space Agency (SNSA; grant no. 2021-00111), the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS; grant no. 2022-00643), and Stiftelsen Oscar och Lili Lamms Minne (grant no. FO2022-0016). Viorica Nagavciuc was partially supported by a BMBF project and acknowledges funding via \u201CK\u00FCnstliche Intelligenz in der zivilen Sicherheitsforschung II\u201D of the BMBF in the framework of \u201CForschung f\u00FCr die zivile Sicherheit\u201D of the German Federal Government (https://www.sifo.de/sifo/de/home/home_node.html, last access: 7 September 2024). She was also partially supported by a grant of the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization, under \u201CRomania\u2019s National Recovery and Resilience Plan\u201D funded by the EU NextGenerationEU programme, project \u201CCompound extreme events from a long-term perspective and their impact on forest growth dynamics\u201D (CExForD) (grant no. 760074/23.05.2023; code 287/30.11.2022; within Pillar III, Component C9, Investment 8). Ana Bastos was funded by the European Union (ERC Starting Grant, ForExD, grant agreement no. 101039567). Margaret Garcia was supported by a National Science Foundation CAREER grant: Balancing Local and Systemic Resilience in the Western Water Network (CIS-1942370). Sina Khatami was jointly supported by a European Research Council (ERC) consolidator grant (grant no. 771678; HydroSocialExtremes), the EU-funded TRANSCEND project (grant no. 101084110), the Swedish Mannerfelt fond and Ahlmanns fond of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research (Sweden), and the HS&HK philanthropic fund (TO-53455-AUS, Australia). Micha Werner and Riccardo Biella were partially funded by the I-CISK project under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 101037293). Anastasiya Shyrokaya received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sk\u0142odowska-Curie Actions (grant no. 956396; EDIPI Project). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the funding agencies (e.g. the European Union or the European Research Council). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. This research has been supported by the European Union (ERC Starting Grant, PerfectSTORM (grant no. 948601); ERC Starting Grant, ForExD (grant no. 101039567); ERC Consolidator Grant, HydroSocialExtremes (grant no. 771678)), EU Horizon 2020 (grant nos. 101084110 and 101037293), EU Marie Sk\u0142odowska-Curie Actions (grant no. 956396), NWO and INREF (grant no. W07.30318.016), SNSA (grant no. 2021-00111), FORMAS (grant no. 2022-00643), Stiftelsen Oscar och Lili Lamms Minne (grant no. FO2022-0016), BMBF, NextGenerationEU (grant no. 760074/23.05.2023; code 287/30.11.2022), an NSF CAREER grant (CIS-1942370), Swedish Mannerfelt fond and Ahlmanns fond of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research (Sweden), and the HS&HK philanthropic fund (TO-53455-AUS, Australia).
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Western Water Network | |
| Swedish research council for sustainable development | |
| INREF | |
| Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek | |
| Horizon 2020 Framework Programme | |
| Swedish Mannerfelt fond and Ahlmanns fond of the Bolin Centre for Climate Research | |
| Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization | |
| HS&HK philanthropic fund | TO-53455-AUS |
| Interdisciplinary Research and Education Fund | W07.30318.016 |
| Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas | 2022-00643 |
| Stiftelsen Oscar och Lili Lamms Minne | FO2022-0016 |
| National Science Foundation | CIS-1942370 |
| European Research Council | 948601, 101039567, 771678 |
| Horizon 2020 | 101037293, 101084110 |
| Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung | 287/30.11.2022, 760074/23.05.2023 |
| H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions | 287/30.11.2022, 956396 |
| Swedish National Space Agency | 2021-00111 |
| European Commission | 760074/23.05.2023 |