Risk assessment using spatial prediction model for natural disaster preparedness

Chang Jo F. Chung, Andrea G. Fabbri, Dong Ho Jang, Henk J. Scholten

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The spatial mapping of risk is critical in planning for disaster preparedness. An application from a study area affected by mass movements is used as an example to portray the desirable relations between hazard prediction and disaster management. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i) construction of a hazard prediction map of “future” hazardous events; (ii) validation/reliability of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of socio-economic factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with socio-economic data. Three-dimensional dynamic display techniques can be used to obtain the contextual setting of the risk space/time/level distribution and to plan measures for risk avoidance or mitigation, or for disaster preparedness and risk management. A software approach provides the analytical structure and modeling power as a fundamental tool for decision making.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGeo-information for Disaster Management
EditorsPeter van Oosterom, Siyka Zlatanova, Elfriede M. Fendel
Place of PublicationBerlin Heidelberg
PublisherSpringer
Pages619-640
Number of pages22
ISBN (Electronic)9783540274681
ISBN (Print)9783540249887
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005
Event1st International Symposium on Geo-information for Disaster Management, Gi4DM 2005 - Delft, Netherlands
Duration: 21 Mar 200523 Mar 2005

Conference

Conference1st International Symposium on Geo-information for Disaster Management, Gi4DM 2005
Country/TerritoryNetherlands
CityDelft
Period21/03/0523/03/05

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