Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockström; Joyeeta Gupta; Dahe Qin; Steven J. Lade; Jesse F. Abrams; Lauren S. Andersen; David I. Armstrong McKay; Xuemei Bai; Govindasamy Bala; Stuart E. Bunn; Daniel Ciobanu; Fabrice DeClerck; Kristie Ebi; Lauren Gifford; Christopher Gordon; Syezlin Hasan; Norichika Kanie; Timothy M. Lenton; Sina Loriani; Diana M. Liverman; Awaz Mohamed; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; David Obura; Daniel Ospina; Klaudia Prodani; Crelis Rammelt; Boris Sakschewski; Joeri Scholtens; Ben Stewart-Koster; Thejna Tharammal; Detlef van Vuuren; Peter H. Verburg; Ricarda Winkelmann; Caroline Zimm; Elena M. Bennett; Stefan Bringezu; Wendy Broadgate; Pamela A. Green; Lei Huang; Lisa Jacobson; Christopher Ndehedehe; Simona Pedde; Juan Rocha; Marten Scheffer; Lena Schulte-Uebbing; Wim de Vries; Cunde Xiao; Chi Xu; Xinwu Xu; Noelia Zafra-Calvo; Xin Zhang

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockström^*, Joyeeta Gupta, Dahe Qin, Steven J. Lade^*, Jesse F. Abrams, Lauren S. Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Stuart E. Bunn, Daniel Ciobanu, Fabrice DeClerck, Kristie Ebi, Lauren Gifford, Christopher Gordon, Syezlin Hasan, Norichika Kanie, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Diana M. LivermanAwaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Daniel Ospina, Klaudia Prodani, Crelis Rammelt, Boris Sakschewski, Joeri Scholtens, Ben Stewart-Koster, Thejna Tharammal, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Ricarda Winkelmann, Caroline Zimm, Elena M. Bennett, Stefan Bringezu, Wendy Broadgate, Pamela A. Green, Lei Huang, Lisa Jacobson, Christopher Ndehedehe, Simona Pedde, Juan Rocha, Marten Scheffer, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Wim de Vries, Cunde Xiao, Chi Xu, Xinwu Xu, Noelia Zafra-Calvo, Xin Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Environmental Geography

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	102-111
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature
Volume	619
Issue number	7968
Early online date	31 May 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
Publication status	Published - 6 Jul 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work is part of the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation. Individual researchers were supported by the European Research Council (Grant on Climate Change and Fossil Fuel 101020082 to J.G. and Advanced Grant grant ERC-2016-ADG 743080 to J. Rockström), the Open Society Foundations (J.F.A. and T.M.L.), the Australian Government (Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381 to S.J.L. and Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE230101327 to C.N.) and the Swedish Research Council Formas (Grant 2020-00371 to S.J.L.).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

Funding

This work is part of the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation. Individual researchers were supported by the European Research Council (Grant on Climate Change and Fossil Fuel 101020082 to J.G. and Advanced Grant grant ERC-2016-ADG 743080 to J. Rockström), the Open Society Foundations (J.F.A. and T.M.L.), the Australian Government (Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381 to S.J.L. and Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE230101327 to C.N.) and the Swedish Research Council Formas (Grant 2020-00371 to S.J.L.).

Funders	Funder number
Earth Commission
Frontiers Research Foundation
Global Challenges Foundation
MAVA
Open Society Foundations
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Oak Foundation
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
Global Environment Facility
Australian Government
European Research Council	101020082, ERC-2016-ADG 743080
European Research Council
Australian Research Council	FT200100381, DE230101327
Australian Research Council
Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas	2020-00371
Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
Tiina ja Antti Herlinin säätiö

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Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Qin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L. S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bunn, S. E., Ciobanu, D., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hasan, S., Kanie, N., Lenton, T. M., Loriani, S., ... Zhang, X. (2023). Safe and just Earth system boundaries. Nature, 619(7968), 102-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

@article{61c8dd55daa74851b74391d779d8c2ca,

title = "Safe and just Earth system boundaries",

abstract = "The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.",

author = "Johan Rockstr{\"o}m and Joyeeta Gupta and Dahe Qin and Lade, {Steven J.} and Abrams, {Jesse F.} and Andersen, {Lauren S.} and {Armstrong McKay}, {David I.} and Xuemei Bai and Govindasamy Bala and Bunn, {Stuart E.} and Daniel Ciobanu and Fabrice DeClerck and Kristie Ebi and Lauren Gifford and Christopher Gordon and Syezlin Hasan and Norichika Kanie and Lenton, {Timothy M.} and Sina Loriani and Liverman, {Diana M.} and Awaz Mohamed and Nebojsa Nakicenovic and David Obura and Daniel Ospina and Klaudia Prodani and Crelis Rammelt and Boris Sakschewski and Joeri Scholtens and Ben Stewart-Koster and Thejna Tharammal and {van Vuuren}, Detlef and Verburg, {Peter H.} and Ricarda Winkelmann and Caroline Zimm and Bennett, {Elena M.} and Stefan Bringezu and Wendy Broadgate and Green, {Pamela A.} and Lei Huang and Lisa Jacobson and Christopher Ndehedehe and Simona Pedde and Juan Rocha and Marten Scheffer and Lena Schulte-Uebbing and {de Vries}, Wim and Cunde Xiao and Chi Xu and Xinwu Xu and Noelia Zafra-Calvo and Xin Zhang",

note = "Funding Information: This work is part of the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation. Individual researchers were supported by the European Research Council (Grant on Climate Change and Fossil Fuel 101020082 to J.G. and Advanced Grant grant ERC-2016-ADG 743080 to J. Rockstr{\"o}m), the Open Society Foundations (J.F.A. and T.M.L.), the Australian Government (Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381 to S.J.L. and Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE230101327 to C.N.) and the Swedish Research Council Formas (Grant 2020-00371 to S.J.L.). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = jul,

day = "6",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8",

language = "English",

volume = "619",

pages = "102--111",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "7968",

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Rockström, J, Gupta, J, Qin, D, Lade, SJ, Abrams, JF, Andersen, LS, Armstrong McKay, DI, Bai, X, Bala, G, Bunn, SE, Ciobanu, D, DeClerck, F, Ebi, K, Gifford, L, Gordon, C, Hasan, S, Kanie, N, Lenton, TM, Loriani, S, Liverman, DM, Mohamed, A, Nakicenovic, N, Obura, D, Ospina, D, Prodani, K, Rammelt, C, Sakschewski, B, Scholtens, J, Stewart-Koster, B, Tharammal, T, van Vuuren, D, Verburg, PH, Winkelmann, R, Zimm, C, Bennett, EM, Bringezu, S, Broadgate, W, Green, PA, Huang, L, Jacobson, L, Ndehedehe, C, Pedde, S, Rocha, J, Scheffer, M, Schulte-Uebbing, L, de Vries, W, Xiao, C, Xu, C, Xu, X, Zafra-Calvo, N & Zhang, X 2023, 'Safe and just Earth system boundaries', Nature, vol. 619, no. 7968, pp. 102-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8

TY - JOUR

T1 - Safe and just Earth system boundaries

AU - Rockström, Johan

AU - Gupta, Joyeeta

AU - Qin, Dahe

AU - Lade, Steven J.

AU - Abrams, Jesse F.

AU - Andersen, Lauren S.

AU - Armstrong McKay, David I.

AU - Bai, Xuemei

AU - Bala, Govindasamy

AU - Bunn, Stuart E.

AU - Ciobanu, Daniel

AU - DeClerck, Fabrice

AU - Ebi, Kristie

AU - Gifford, Lauren

AU - Gordon, Christopher

AU - Hasan, Syezlin

AU - Kanie, Norichika

AU - Lenton, Timothy M.

AU - Loriani, Sina

AU - Liverman, Diana M.

AU - Mohamed, Awaz

AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

AU - Obura, David

AU - Ospina, Daniel

AU - Prodani, Klaudia

AU - Rammelt, Crelis

AU - Sakschewski, Boris

AU - Scholtens, Joeri

AU - Stewart-Koster, Ben

AU - Tharammal, Thejna

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

AU - Verburg, Peter H.

AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda

AU - Zimm, Caroline

AU - Bennett, Elena M.

AU - Bringezu, Stefan

AU - Broadgate, Wendy

AU - Green, Pamela A.

AU - Huang, Lei

AU - Jacobson, Lisa

AU - Ndehedehe, Christopher

AU - Pedde, Simona

AU - Rocha, Juan

AU - Scheffer, Marten

AU - Schulte-Uebbing, Lena

AU - de Vries, Wim

AU - Xiao, Cunde

AU - Xu, Chi

AU - Xu, Xinwu

AU - Zafra-Calvo, Noelia

AU - Zhang, Xin

N1 - Funding Information: This work is part of the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from the Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation and the Frontiers Research Foundation. Individual researchers were supported by the European Research Council (Grant on Climate Change and Fossil Fuel 101020082 to J.G. and Advanced Grant grant ERC-2016-ADG 743080 to J. Rockström), the Open Society Foundations (J.F.A. and T.M.L.), the Australian Government (Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381 to S.J.L. and Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE230101327 to C.N.) and the Swedish Research Council Formas (Grant 2020-00371 to S.J.L.). Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

PY - 2023/7/6

Y1 - 2023/7/6

N2 - The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

AB - The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

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VL - 619

SP - 102

EP - 111

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7968

ER -

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

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