Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics

M. Aguiar, B.W. Kooi, J. Martins, N. Stollenwerk

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios. © EDP Sciences, 2012.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-11
JournalMathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
Volume7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Fingerprint

Epidemiology
Stochasticity
Stochastic systems
Skeleton
Parameter estimation
Scaling
Scenarios
Seasonality
Population Size
Stochastic Systems
Infection
Parameter Estimation
Fluctuations
Model

Cite this

@article{1fbc985c043740f1aee5c2747587ea27,
title = "Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics",
abstract = "In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios. {\circledC} EDP Sciences, 2012.",
author = "M. Aguiar and B.W. Kooi and J. Martins and N. Stollenwerk",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1051/mmnp/20127301",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "1--11",
journal = "Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena",
issn = "0973-5348",
publisher = "EDP Sciences",

}

Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics. / Aguiar, M.; Kooi, B.W.; Martins, J.; Stollenwerk, N.

In: Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, Vol. 7, 2012, p. 1-11.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics

AU - Aguiar, M.

AU - Kooi, B.W.

AU - Martins, J.

AU - Stollenwerk, N.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios. © EDP Sciences, 2012.

AB - In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model, which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple dynamical scenarios. © EDP Sciences, 2012.

U2 - 10.1051/mmnp/20127301

DO - 10.1051/mmnp/20127301

M3 - Article

VL - 7

SP - 1

EP - 11

JO - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

JF - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena

SN - 0973-5348

ER -