Scenarios on opportunities and impediments in the Asian Pacific RIM

The Asian Pacific region encompasses a set of different countries with different growth rates, socio-economic conditions and network infrastructures. The trade relationships between these countries are determined by the above mentioned heterogeneity. In recent years the container transport market has gained much importance in this region. The future of this transport system is dependent on various background factors: political, technological, network morphology and development potential. The paper aims to identify the driving forces of the maritime shipping network in the Asian Pacific Rim by focusing in particular on container transport. The great many uncertainties involved are depicted by means of scenario analysis, which are put in a cohesive framework on the basis of the so-called Spider approach. By using these scenarios as a frame of reference, a qualitative impact assessment is carried out in order to identify the consequences of each of these scenarios for the maritime container sector. By means of a strength-weakness analysis the various possible futures are scanned.