Simulating the future of agricultural land use in the Netherlands

The agricultural sector in the Netherlands has lost much of its importance over the last 50 years in terms of the number of people involved and its relative contribution to the economy - even though production is still increasing. Yet, the area under agricultural use has changed relatively little: farmland still dominates the country. The question for the future is how expected further changes in agriculture will affect agricultural land use: how much land will be taken out of production and to what use it will be put. This is especially relevant now that the Dutch Government has decided to loosen its grip on spatial planning. Two opposing socio-economic scenarios are therefore drafted that offer a coherent view on agricultural change, external pressures and government intervention. Implementing these in a land use simulation model provides an initial answer to the possible future of agricultural land in the country. © 2005 by the Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG.