Abstract
Aim: African elephants are ecosystem engineers. As such, their long-term patterns of distribution and abundance (i.e., space-use intensity) will influence ecosystem structure and function. We elucidate these patterns for bull versus herd groups, by analysing the spatiotemporal dynamics of an increasing elephant population in relation to key ecological drivers: rainfall, distance to major rivers and time since last fire. Significant changes to the long-term patterns of elephant density and group-type probabilities are identified and explained. Location: Kruger National Park, South Africa. Methods: Using almost three decades of census records (1985–2012), we applied Multiple Point Process Models to assess the influence of rainfall, rivers and fire in shaping elephant space-use. Significant changes to the long-term patterns of elephant density and group type were also identified using kernel density estimates and the spatially varying probability of encountering either bull or herd group. Results: Bull and herd groups are no longer clearly segregated as available empty space becomes more limited. Bull and herd groups have dichotomous resource selection functions, in that bulls concentrate in areas receiving lower rainfall but more frequent fires while herds concentrate in higher rainfall areas experiencing less frequent fires. Both bull and herd groups concentrate closer to major rivers, emphasizing rivers as important spatial drivers. Overall, densities increased most significantly closer to rivers and in areas experiencing fewer fires. Fire was also a strong agent of group-type change, as the probability of finding bulls, contrary to herds, significantly increased as fire return periods shortened. Main conclusions: Elephant distribution and abundance patterns have homogenized in response to increased space limitations, with group-specific, fire-driven distribution patterns emerging overtime. Results herein should be used to help manage elephant space-use through the establishment of possible refuge areas and the development of more empirical research into elephant impacts in future.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 880-894 |
| Number of pages | 15 |
| Journal | Diversity and Distributions |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| Early online date | 27 Feb 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jun 2019 |
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Keywords
- African elephant
- distribution and abundance
- dynamics
- Kruger National Park
- protected area
- space-use intensity
- spatiotemporal
- spatstat
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Spatiotemporal distribution dynamics of elephants in response to density, rainfall, rivers and fire in Kruger National Park, South Africa. / MacFadyen, Sandra; Hui, Cang; Verburg, Peter H.; Van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.
In: Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 25, No. 6, 01.06.2019, p. 880-894.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatiotemporal distribution dynamics of elephants in response to density, rainfall, rivers and fire in Kruger National Park, South Africa
AU - MacFadyen, Sandra
AU - Hui, Cang
AU - Verburg, Peter H.
AU - Van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.
PY - 2019/6/1
Y1 - 2019/6/1
N2 - Aim: African elephants are ecosystem engineers. As such, their long-term patterns of distribution and abundance (i.e., space-use intensity) will influence ecosystem structure and function. We elucidate these patterns for bull versus herd groups, by analysing the spatiotemporal dynamics of an increasing elephant population in relation to key ecological drivers: rainfall, distance to major rivers and time since last fire. Significant changes to the long-term patterns of elephant density and group-type probabilities are identified and explained. Location: Kruger National Park, South Africa. Methods: Using almost three decades of census records (1985–2012), we applied Multiple Point Process Models to assess the influence of rainfall, rivers and fire in shaping elephant space-use. Significant changes to the long-term patterns of elephant density and group type were also identified using kernel density estimates and the spatially varying probability of encountering either bull or herd group. Results: Bull and herd groups are no longer clearly segregated as available empty space becomes more limited. Bull and herd groups have dichotomous resource selection functions, in that bulls concentrate in areas receiving lower rainfall but more frequent fires while herds concentrate in higher rainfall areas experiencing less frequent fires. Both bull and herd groups concentrate closer to major rivers, emphasizing rivers as important spatial drivers. Overall, densities increased most significantly closer to rivers and in areas experiencing fewer fires. Fire was also a strong agent of group-type change, as the probability of finding bulls, contrary to herds, significantly increased as fire return periods shortened. Main conclusions: Elephant distribution and abundance patterns have homogenized in response to increased space limitations, with group-specific, fire-driven distribution patterns emerging overtime. Results herein should be used to help manage elephant space-use through the establishment of possible refuge areas and the development of more empirical research into elephant impacts in future.
AB - Aim: African elephants are ecosystem engineers. As such, their long-term patterns of distribution and abundance (i.e., space-use intensity) will influence ecosystem structure and function. We elucidate these patterns for bull versus herd groups, by analysing the spatiotemporal dynamics of an increasing elephant population in relation to key ecological drivers: rainfall, distance to major rivers and time since last fire. Significant changes to the long-term patterns of elephant density and group-type probabilities are identified and explained. Location: Kruger National Park, South Africa. Methods: Using almost three decades of census records (1985–2012), we applied Multiple Point Process Models to assess the influence of rainfall, rivers and fire in shaping elephant space-use. Significant changes to the long-term patterns of elephant density and group type were also identified using kernel density estimates and the spatially varying probability of encountering either bull or herd group. Results: Bull and herd groups are no longer clearly segregated as available empty space becomes more limited. Bull and herd groups have dichotomous resource selection functions, in that bulls concentrate in areas receiving lower rainfall but more frequent fires while herds concentrate in higher rainfall areas experiencing less frequent fires. Both bull and herd groups concentrate closer to major rivers, emphasizing rivers as important spatial drivers. Overall, densities increased most significantly closer to rivers and in areas experiencing fewer fires. Fire was also a strong agent of group-type change, as the probability of finding bulls, contrary to herds, significantly increased as fire return periods shortened. Main conclusions: Elephant distribution and abundance patterns have homogenized in response to increased space limitations, with group-specific, fire-driven distribution patterns emerging overtime. Results herein should be used to help manage elephant space-use through the establishment of possible refuge areas and the development of more empirical research into elephant impacts in future.
KW - African elephant
KW - distribution and abundance
KW - dynamics
KW - Kruger National Park
KW - protected area
KW - space-use intensity
KW - spatiotemporal
KW - spatstat
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85065977443&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85065977443&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/ddi.12907
DO - 10.1111/ddi.12907
M3 - Article
VL - 25
SP - 880
EP - 894
JO - Diversity and Distributions
JF - Diversity and Distributions
SN - 1366-9516
IS - 6
ER -