Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi; Benjamin W. Abbott; Brett F. Thornton; Jennifer M. Frederick; Jorien E. Vonk; Paul Overduin; Christina Schädel; Edward A.G. Schuur; Annie Bourbonnais; Nikita Demidov; Anatoly Gavrilov; Shengping He; Gustaf Hugelius; Martin Jakobsson; Miriam C. Jones; Dong Joo Joung; Gleb Kraev; Robie W. Macdonald; A. David McGuire; Cuicui Mu; Matt O’Regan; Kathryn M. Schreiner; Christian Stranne; Elena Pizhankova; Alexander Vasiliev; Sebastian Westermann; Jay P. Zarnetske; Tingjun Zhang; Mehran Ghandehari; Sarah Baeumler; Brian C. Brown; Rebecca J. Frei

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi^*, Benjamin W. Abbott, Brett F. Thornton, Jennifer M. Frederick, Jorien E. Vonk, Paul Overduin, Christina Schädel, Edward A.G. Schuur, Annie Bourbonnais, Nikita Demidov, Anatoly Gavrilov, Shengping He, Gustaf Hugelius, Martin Jakobsson, Miriam C. Jones, Dong Joo Joung, Gleb Kraev, Robie W. Macdonald, A. David McGuire, Cuicui MuMatt O’Regan, Kathryn M. Schreiner, Christian Stranne, Elena Pizhankova, Alexander Vasiliev, Sebastian Westermann, Jay P. Zarnetske, Tingjun Zhang, Mehran Ghandehari, Sarah Baeumler, Brian C. Brown, Rebecca J. Frei

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Climate

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH₄), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH₄. Current fluxes of CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr⁻¹, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO₂e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

Original language	English
Article number	124075
Pages (from-to)	1-14
Number of pages	14
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	15
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
Publication status	Published - 22 Dec 2020

Funding

This work was supported by the Brigham Young University Graduate Studies and the Permafrost Carbon Network through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Grant No. 1331083. Benjamin Abbott was supported by NSF award number 1916565. Cuicui Mu was supported by The National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0607003). Gleb Kraev was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project 19-77-10065). Nikita Demidov was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project 19-77-10066). Alexander Vasiliev was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No. 18-05-60004. Christian Stranne was supported by the Swedish Science Foundation (VR, project 2018-04350). Jennifer M Frederick was supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories, a multimis-sion laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525. We thank Sebastien Wetterich and Vladimir Romanovsky for providing input on the manuscript and M Bayani Cardenas for input on the questionnaire and conceptual framing of the project. The background drawings in figure 1, were created by Anna Wright.

Funders	Funder number
Permafrost Carbon Network
Swedish Science Foundation	2018-04350
National Science Foundation	1331083, 1916565
U.S. Department of Energy
National Nuclear Security Administration	DE-NA-0003525
Sandia National Laboratories
Brigham Young University
Laboratory Directed Research and Development
Russian Foundation for Basic Research	18-05-60004
Russian Science Foundation	19-77-10065, 19-77-10066
National Key Research and Development Program of China	2019YFA0607003

Keywords

Carbon stocks
Climate change
Expert assessment
Subsea permafrost

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

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Sayedi, S. S., Abbott, B. W., Thornton, B. F., Frederick, J. M., Vonk, J. E., Overduin, P., Schädel, C., Schuur, E. A. G., Bourbonnais, A., Demidov, N., Gavrilov, A., He, S., Hugelius, G., Jakobsson, M., Jones, M. C., Joung, D. J., Kraev, G., Macdonald, R. W., David McGuire, A., ... Frei, R. J. (2020). Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 1-14. Article 124075. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

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abstract = "The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.",

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Sayedi, SS, Abbott, BW, Thornton, BF, Frederick, JM, Vonk, JE, Overduin, P, Schädel, C, Schuur, EAG, Bourbonnais, A, Demidov, N, Gavrilov, A, He, S, Hugelius, G, Jakobsson, M, Jones, MC, Joung, DJ, Kraev, G, Macdonald, RW, David McGuire, A, Mu, C, O’Regan, M, Schreiner, KM, Stranne, C, Pizhankova, E, Vasiliev, A, Westermann, S, Zarnetske, JP, Zhang, T, Ghandehari, M, Baeumler, S, Brown, BC & Frei, RJ 2020, 'Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 15, no. 12, 124075, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

TY - JOUR

T1 - Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

AU - Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara

AU - Abbott, Benjamin W.

AU - Thornton, Brett F.

AU - Frederick, Jennifer M.

AU - Vonk, Jorien E.

AU - Overduin, Paul

AU - Schädel, Christina

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Bourbonnais, Annie

AU - Demidov, Nikita

AU - Gavrilov, Anatoly

AU - He, Shengping

AU - Hugelius, Gustaf

AU - Jakobsson, Martin

AU - Jones, Miriam C.

AU - Joung, Dong Joo

AU - Kraev, Gleb

AU - Macdonald, Robie W.

AU - David McGuire, A.

AU - Mu, Cuicui

AU - O’Regan, Matt

AU - Schreiner, Kathryn M.

AU - Stranne, Christian

AU - Pizhankova, Elena

AU - Vasiliev, Alexander

AU - Westermann, Sebastian

AU - Zarnetske, Jay P.

AU - Zhang, Tingjun

AU - Ghandehari, Mehran

AU - Baeumler, Sarah

AU - Brown, Brian C.

AU - Frei, Rebecca J.

PY - 2020/12/22

Y1 - 2020/12/22

N2 - The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

AB - The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

KW - Carbon stocks

KW - Climate change

KW - Expert assessment

KW - Subsea permafrost

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SP - 1

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JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

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ER -

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

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UN SDGs

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