Substitution from Air to High-Speed Rail: The Case of Amsterdam Airport

Eric Kroes, Fons Savelberg

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

In this paper we present the results of a study that aims to establish the potential for high-speed train travel as a substitute for short distance air travel at Amsterdam Airport. We investigated the 13 most important destinations that offer direct flights to and from Amsterdam Airport. Almost 40% of the air passengers travelling to/from these destinations are transfer passengers. Empirical evidence reveals that high-speed trains dominate the market for journeys of 2 hours or less, such as between Paris and Brussels. However, trains claim only a tiny market share of journeys longer than 5 to 6 hours; air travel dominates that market segment. Using these findings, we developed a model to estimate the substitution of air travel with high-speed train travel. The explanatory variables in this model are travel time, daily departure options, fares, and the inconvenience associated with transferring at airports. In a “minimum” scenario, we predict that in 2030 high-speed trains could replace approximately 1.9 million air journeys. This calculation is based on feasible reductions of train travel times and increased train frequencies for part of the rail network. In this scenario, Amsterdam–London accounts for more than three-quarters of the predicted substitution. In a “maximum” scenario, substitution could increase up to 3.7 million air journeys per year, provided that inconveniences for passengers when transferring at airports from plane to train are resolved and train ticket fares are reduced by 20%. These two scenarios imply a reduction of 2.5 to 5% of all flights to/from Amsterdam Airport in 2030.

Original languageEnglish
JournalTransportation Research Record
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 1 Jan 2019

Fingerprint

Airports
Rails
Substitution reactions
Air
Travel time
Transportation charges

Cite this

@article{188559071002405cba804e224157c9ac,
title = "Substitution from Air to High-Speed Rail: The Case of Amsterdam Airport",
abstract = "In this paper we present the results of a study that aims to establish the potential for high-speed train travel as a substitute for short distance air travel at Amsterdam Airport. We investigated the 13 most important destinations that offer direct flights to and from Amsterdam Airport. Almost 40{\%} of the air passengers travelling to/from these destinations are transfer passengers. Empirical evidence reveals that high-speed trains dominate the market for journeys of 2 hours or less, such as between Paris and Brussels. However, trains claim only a tiny market share of journeys longer than 5 to 6 hours; air travel dominates that market segment. Using these findings, we developed a model to estimate the substitution of air travel with high-speed train travel. The explanatory variables in this model are travel time, daily departure options, fares, and the inconvenience associated with transferring at airports. In a “minimum” scenario, we predict that in 2030 high-speed trains could replace approximately 1.9 million air journeys. This calculation is based on feasible reductions of train travel times and increased train frequencies for part of the rail network. In this scenario, Amsterdam–London accounts for more than three-quarters of the predicted substitution. In a “maximum” scenario, substitution could increase up to 3.7 million air journeys per year, provided that inconveniences for passengers when transferring at airports from plane to train are resolved and train ticket fares are reduced by 20{\%}. These two scenarios imply a reduction of 2.5 to 5{\%} of all flights to/from Amsterdam Airport in 2030.",
author = "Eric Kroes and Fons Savelberg",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1177/0361198119839952",
language = "English",
journal = "Transportation Research Record",
issn = "0361-1981",
publisher = "US National Research Council",

}

Substitution from Air to High-Speed Rail : The Case of Amsterdam Airport. / Kroes, Eric; Savelberg, Fons.

In: Transportation Research Record, 01.01.2019.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Substitution from Air to High-Speed Rail

T2 - The Case of Amsterdam Airport

AU - Kroes, Eric

AU - Savelberg, Fons

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - In this paper we present the results of a study that aims to establish the potential for high-speed train travel as a substitute for short distance air travel at Amsterdam Airport. We investigated the 13 most important destinations that offer direct flights to and from Amsterdam Airport. Almost 40% of the air passengers travelling to/from these destinations are transfer passengers. Empirical evidence reveals that high-speed trains dominate the market for journeys of 2 hours or less, such as between Paris and Brussels. However, trains claim only a tiny market share of journeys longer than 5 to 6 hours; air travel dominates that market segment. Using these findings, we developed a model to estimate the substitution of air travel with high-speed train travel. The explanatory variables in this model are travel time, daily departure options, fares, and the inconvenience associated with transferring at airports. In a “minimum” scenario, we predict that in 2030 high-speed trains could replace approximately 1.9 million air journeys. This calculation is based on feasible reductions of train travel times and increased train frequencies for part of the rail network. In this scenario, Amsterdam–London accounts for more than three-quarters of the predicted substitution. In a “maximum” scenario, substitution could increase up to 3.7 million air journeys per year, provided that inconveniences for passengers when transferring at airports from plane to train are resolved and train ticket fares are reduced by 20%. These two scenarios imply a reduction of 2.5 to 5% of all flights to/from Amsterdam Airport in 2030.

AB - In this paper we present the results of a study that aims to establish the potential for high-speed train travel as a substitute for short distance air travel at Amsterdam Airport. We investigated the 13 most important destinations that offer direct flights to and from Amsterdam Airport. Almost 40% of the air passengers travelling to/from these destinations are transfer passengers. Empirical evidence reveals that high-speed trains dominate the market for journeys of 2 hours or less, such as between Paris and Brussels. However, trains claim only a tiny market share of journeys longer than 5 to 6 hours; air travel dominates that market segment. Using these findings, we developed a model to estimate the substitution of air travel with high-speed train travel. The explanatory variables in this model are travel time, daily departure options, fares, and the inconvenience associated with transferring at airports. In a “minimum” scenario, we predict that in 2030 high-speed trains could replace approximately 1.9 million air journeys. This calculation is based on feasible reductions of train travel times and increased train frequencies for part of the rail network. In this scenario, Amsterdam–London accounts for more than three-quarters of the predicted substitution. In a “maximum” scenario, substitution could increase up to 3.7 million air journeys per year, provided that inconveniences for passengers when transferring at airports from plane to train are resolved and train ticket fares are reduced by 20%. These two scenarios imply a reduction of 2.5 to 5% of all flights to/from Amsterdam Airport in 2030.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85063962448&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85063962448&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/0361198119839952

DO - 10.1177/0361198119839952

M3 - Article

JO - Transportation Research Record

JF - Transportation Research Record

SN - 0361-1981

ER -