Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective

M. Hagenlocher; G. Naumann; I. Meza; V. Blauhut; D. Cotti; P. Döll; K. Ehlert; F. Gaupp; A. F. Van Loon; J. A. Marengo; L. Rossi; A. S. Sabino Siemons; S. Siebert; A. T. Tsehayu; A. Toreti; D. Tsegai; C. Vera; J. Vogt; M. Wens

doi:10.1029/2023EF003857

Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective

M. Hagenlocher^*, G. Naumann, I. Meza, V. Blauhut, D. Cotti, P. Döll, K. Ehlert, F. Gaupp, A. F. Van Loon, J. A. Marengo, L. Rossi, A. S. Sabino Siemons, S. Siebert, A. T. Tsehayu, A. Toreti, D. Tsegai, C. Vera, J. Vogt, M. Wens

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Comment / Letter to the editor › Academic

Abstract

In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent and severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological and climate hazards. This is mainly due to the complexity of drought, the high level of uncertainties in its analysis, and the lack of community agreement on a common framework to tackle the problem. Here, we outline that to effectively assess and manage drought risks, a systemic perspective is needed. We propose a novel drought risk framework that highlights the systemic nature of drought risks, and show its operationalization using the example of the 2022 drought in Europe. This research emphasizes that solutions to tackle growing drought risks should not only consider the underlying drivers of drought risks for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based on an understanding of sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding and concurring hazards, as well as possible tipping points and globally and/or regionally networked risks.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023EF003857
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	10
Journal	Earth's Future
Volume	11
Issue number	9
Early online date	12 Sept 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003857
Publication status	Published - Sept 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research has received financial support from the GlobeDrought project (Grant 02WGR1457A‐F) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through its Global Resource Water (GRoW) funding initiative as well as by the EDORA project (No 09200200.A092005/2021/862347/ENV.C.1—Lot 1) funded by the European Commission Directorate General Environment (DG ENV). AVL was supported by the ERC Grant project PerfectSTORM (number: ERC‐2020‐StG‐948601). The authors would like to thank Dr. Zita Sebesvari and Dr. Yvonne Walz for their feedback on an earlier version of the conceptual framework. Lastly, the authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable and constructive feedback, which has strongly helped in improving the paper.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 United Nations University. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Funding

This research has received financial support from the GlobeDrought project (Grant 02WGR1457A‐F) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through its Global Resource Water (GRoW) funding initiative as well as by the EDORA project (No 09200200.A092005/2021/862347/ENV.C.1—Lot 1) funded by the European Commission Directorate General Environment (DG ENV). AVL was supported by the ERC Grant project PerfectSTORM (number: ERC‐2020‐StG‐948601). The authors would like to thank Dr. Zita Sebesvari and Dr. Yvonne Walz for their feedback on an earlier version of the conceptual framework. Lastly, the authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable and constructive feedback, which has strongly helped in improving the paper.

Funders	Funder number
Directorate-General for Environment	ERC‐2020‐StG‐948601
Directorate-General for Environment
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	09200200, A092005/2021/862347
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

Keywords

cascading
drought
framework
risk
risk management
systemic risk

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10.1029/2023EF003857

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Hagenlocher, M., Naumann, G., Meza, I., Blauhut, V., Cotti, D., Döll, P., Ehlert, K., Gaupp, F., Van Loon, A. F., Marengo, J. A., Rossi, L., Sabino Siemons, A. S., Siebert, S., Tsehayu, A. T., Toreti, A., Tsegai, D., Vera, C., Vogt, J., & Wens, M. (2023). Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective. Earth's Future, 11(9), 1-10. Article e2023EF003857. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003857

@article{31011cec2dcd40a99e47ecce2db097a2,

title = "Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective",

abstract = "In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent and severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological and climate hazards. This is mainly due to the complexity of drought, the high level of uncertainties in its analysis, and the lack of community agreement on a common framework to tackle the problem. Here, we outline that to effectively assess and manage drought risks, a systemic perspective is needed. We propose a novel drought risk framework that highlights the systemic nature of drought risks, and show its operationalization using the example of the 2022 drought in Europe. This research emphasizes that solutions to tackle growing drought risks should not only consider the underlying drivers of drought risks for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based on an understanding of sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding and concurring hazards, as well as possible tipping points and globally and/or regionally networked risks.",

keywords = "cascading, drought, framework, risk, risk management, systemic risk",

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note = "Funding Information: This research has received financial support from the GlobeDrought project (Grant 02WGR1457A‐F) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through its Global Resource Water (GRoW) funding initiative as well as by the EDORA project (No 09200200.A092005/2021/862347/ENV.C.1—Lot 1) funded by the European Commission Directorate General Environment (DG ENV). AVL was supported by the ERC Grant project PerfectSTORM (number: ERC‐2020‐StG‐948601). The authors would like to thank Dr. Zita Sebesvari and Dr. Yvonne Walz for their feedback on an earlier version of the conceptual framework. Lastly, the authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable and constructive feedback, which has strongly helped in improving the paper. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 United Nations University. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",

year = "2023",

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doi = "10.1029/2023EF003857",

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Hagenlocher, M, Naumann, G, Meza, I, Blauhut, V, Cotti, D, Döll, P, Ehlert, K, Gaupp, F, Van Loon, AF, Marengo, JA, Rossi, L, Sabino Siemons, AS, Siebert, S, Tsehayu, AT, Toreti, A, Tsegai, D, Vera, C, Vogt, J & Wens, M 2023, 'Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective', Earth's Future, vol. 11, no. 9, e2023EF003857, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003857

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T1 - Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective

AU - Hagenlocher, M.

AU - Naumann, G.

AU - Meza, I.

AU - Blauhut, V.

AU - Cotti, D.

AU - Döll, P.

AU - Ehlert, K.

AU - Gaupp, F.

AU - Van Loon, A. F.

AU - Marengo, J. A.

AU - Rossi, L.

AU - Sabino Siemons, A. S.

AU - Siebert, S.

AU - Tsehayu, A. T.

AU - Toreti, A.

AU - Tsegai, D.

AU - Vera, C.

AU - Vogt, J.

AU - Wens, M.

N1 - Funding Information: This research has received financial support from the GlobeDrought project (Grant 02WGR1457A‐F) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through its Global Resource Water (GRoW) funding initiative as well as by the EDORA project (No 09200200.A092005/2021/862347/ENV.C.1—Lot 1) funded by the European Commission Directorate General Environment (DG ENV). AVL was supported by the ERC Grant project PerfectSTORM (number: ERC‐2020‐StG‐948601). The authors would like to thank Dr. Zita Sebesvari and Dr. Yvonne Walz for their feedback on an earlier version of the conceptual framework. Lastly, the authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable and constructive feedback, which has strongly helped in improving the paper. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 United Nations University. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

PY - 2023/9

Y1 - 2023/9

N2 - In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent and severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological and climate hazards. This is mainly due to the complexity of drought, the high level of uncertainties in its analysis, and the lack of community agreement on a common framework to tackle the problem. Here, we outline that to effectively assess and manage drought risks, a systemic perspective is needed. We propose a novel drought risk framework that highlights the systemic nature of drought risks, and show its operationalization using the example of the 2022 drought in Europe. This research emphasizes that solutions to tackle growing drought risks should not only consider the underlying drivers of drought risks for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based on an understanding of sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding and concurring hazards, as well as possible tipping points and globally and/or regionally networked risks.

AB - In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse direct, cascading, and systemic impacts. Despite more frequent and severe events, drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological and climate hazards. This is mainly due to the complexity of drought, the high level of uncertainties in its analysis, and the lack of community agreement on a common framework to tackle the problem. Here, we outline that to effectively assess and manage drought risks, a systemic perspective is needed. We propose a novel drought risk framework that highlights the systemic nature of drought risks, and show its operationalization using the example of the 2022 drought in Europe. This research emphasizes that solutions to tackle growing drought risks should not only consider the underlying drivers of drought risks for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based on an understanding of sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding and concurring hazards, as well as possible tipping points and globally and/or regionally networked risks.

KW - cascading

KW - drought

KW - framework

KW - risk

KW - risk management

KW - systemic risk

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JF - Earth's Future

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M1 - e2023EF003857

ER -

Tackling Growing Drought Risks—The Need for a Systemic Perspective

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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Keywords

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