Tail Estimates and the Ems Target Zone

K.G. Koedijk, C.J.M. Kool

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Characteristically, distributions of exchange‐rate returns are fat‐tailed. We use a nonparametric tail‐index estimator based on extreme value theory for seven EMS currencies between April 1979 and October 1991. We find that the behavior of the Belgian franc, the Danish Krone, the French franc, and the Italian lira has become significantly less fat‐tailed over time. We attribute this to the decline in the exchange‐rate variance as observed in the EMS, which according to the target‐zone literature should lead to a convergence of fixed exchange‐rate behavior to that of floating rates. A comparison of tail estimates for the Deutsche mark and dollar exchange rates supports this notion. Copyright © 1994, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)153-165
JournalReview of International Economics
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1994
Externally publishedYes


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