Abstract
We develop a new parameter instability test that generalizes the seminal ARCHLagrange Multiplier test of Engle (1982) for a constant variance against the alternative of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to settings with nonlinear timevarying parameters and non-Gaussian distributions. We investigate the performance of the new test relative to both classic and recently proposed parameter instability tests, including tests against structural breaks and parameter-driven dynamics. We find that the recent test of Müller and Petalas (2010) performs best across a wide range of alternatives, particularly if parameter instability is slow. For time-varying parameters that exhibitmoremean reversion, our new test has higher power. We provide an application to a heavily unbalanced panel of losses given default for US corporations from 1982 to 2010 and provide evidence of significant parameter instability in the parameters of a static beta distributedmodel.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 223-246 |
| Number of pages | 24 |
| Journal | Journal of Financial Econometrics |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| Early online date | 1 Sept 2016 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 |
Keywords
- Credit risk
- Generalized autoregressive score model
- Observation-driven and parameterdriven models
- Regime switching
- Structural breaks
- Time-varying parameters