The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models

Steven J. De Hertog; Felix Havermann; Inne Vanderkelen; Suqi Guo; Fei Luo; Iris Manola; Dim Coumou; Edouard L. Davin; Gregory Duveiller; Quentin Lejeune; Julia Pongratz; Carl Friedrich Schleussner; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Wim Thiery

doi:10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022

The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models

Steven J. De Hertog^*, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios in terms of both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (iii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree regarding whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision-making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1305-1350
Number of pages	46
Journal	Earth System Dynamics
Volume	13
Issue number	3
Early online date	21 Sept 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022
Publication status	Published - 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1905A), NWO (NL), and the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and co-funded by the European Union through the project “LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation” (LAMACLIMA) (grant agreement no. 300478), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate. Inne Vanderkelen is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). Gregory Duveiller was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant “Understanding and Modelling the Earth System with Machine Learning (USMILE)” under grant agreement no. 855187.

Funding Information:
The computational resources and services used in this work for the simulations and storage of CESM data were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI. For the storage of signal-separated results and the simulations of MPIESM, this work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID bm1147. Fei Luo and Dim Coumou acknowledge the VIDI award from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Persistent Summer Extremes “PERSIST” project: 016.Vidi.171.011). Fei Luo would like to thank Philippe Le Sager, Lars Nieradzik, and Thomas Reerink for their help in the discussions for the post-processing and interpretations of EC-EARTH model output. All the simulations from EC-EARTH were carried out on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) platforms. The authors would like to thank Johannes Winckler, Lars Nieradzik, Paul Miller, David Wårlind, and the reviewers for their constructive and useful feedback, which greatly helped improve the paper during the review process.

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) 2022.

Funding

This work was funded by the DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1905A), NWO (NL), and the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and co-funded by the European Union through the project “LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation” (LAMACLIMA) (grant agreement no. 300478), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate. Inne Vanderkelen is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). Gregory Duveiller was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant “Understanding and Modelling the Earth System with Machine Learning (USMILE)” under grant agreement no. 855187. The computational resources and services used in this work for the simulations and storage of CESM data were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI. For the storage of signal-separated results and the simulations of MPIESM, this work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID bm1147. Fei Luo and Dim Coumou acknowledge the VIDI award from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Persistent Summer Extremes “PERSIST” project: 016.Vidi.171.011). Fei Luo would like to thank Philippe Le Sager, Lars Nieradzik, and Thomas Reerink for their help in the discussions for the post-processing and interpretations of EC-EARTH model output. All the simulations from EC-EARTH were carried out on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) platforms. The authors would like to thank Johannes Winckler, Lars Nieradzik, Paul Miller, David Wårlind, and the reviewers for their constructive and useful feedback, which greatly helped improve the paper during the review process.

Funders	Funder number
JPI Climate
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	855187
Vlaams Supercomputer Centrum
European Commission	300478
European Research Council
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	01LS1905A
Belgian Federal Science Policy Office
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Vlaamse regering

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022

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Cite this

De Hertog, S. J., Havermann, F., Vanderkelen, I., Guo, S., Luo, F., Manola, I., Coumou, D., Davin, E. L., Duveiller, G., Lejeune, Q., Pongratz, J., Schleussner, C. F., Seneviratne, S. I., & Thiery, W. (2022). The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models. Earth System Dynamics, 13(3), 1305-1350. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022

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title = "The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models",

abstract = "Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios in terms of both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (iii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree regarding whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision-making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies. ",

author = "\{De Hertog\}, \{Steven J.\} and Felix Havermann and Inne Vanderkelen and Suqi Guo and Fei Luo and Iris Manola and Dim Coumou and Davin, \{Edouard L.\} and Gregory Duveiller and Quentin Lejeune and Julia Pongratz and Schleussner, \{Carl Friedrich\} and Seneviratne, \{Sonia I.\} and Wim Thiery",

note = "Funding Information: This work was funded by the DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1905A), NWO (NL), and the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and co-funded by the European Union through the project “LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation” (LAMACLIMA) (grant agreement no. 300478), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate. Inne Vanderkelen is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). Gregory Duveiller was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant “Understanding and Modelling the Earth System with Machine Learning (USMILE)” under grant agreement no. 855187. Funding Information: The computational resources and services used in this work for the simulations and storage of CESM data were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI. For the storage of signal-separated results and the simulations of MPIESM, this work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID bm1147. Fei Luo and Dim Coumou acknowledge the VIDI award from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Persistent Summer Extremes “PERSIST” project: 016.Vidi.171.011). Fei Luo would like to thank Philippe Le Sager, Lars Nieradzik, and Thomas Reerink for their help in the discussions for the post-processing and interpretations of EC-EARTH model output. All the simulations from EC-EARTH were carried out on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) platforms. The authors would like to thank Johannes Winckler, Lars Nieradzik, Paul Miller, David W{\aa}rlind, and the reviewers for their constructive and useful feedback, which greatly helped improve the paper during the review process. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) 2022.",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022",

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De Hertog, SJ, Havermann, F, Vanderkelen, I, Guo, S, Luo, F, Manola, I, Coumou, D, Davin, EL, Duveiller, G, Lejeune, Q, Pongratz, J, Schleussner, CF, Seneviratne, SI & Thiery, W 2022, 'The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models', Earth System Dynamics, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1305-1350. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022

TY - JOUR

T1 - The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models

AU - De Hertog, Steven J.

AU - Havermann, Felix

AU - Vanderkelen, Inne

AU - Guo, Suqi

AU - Luo, Fei

AU - Manola, Iris

AU - Coumou, Dim

AU - Davin, Edouard L.

AU - Duveiller, Gregory

AU - Lejeune, Quentin

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Schleussner, Carl Friedrich

AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I.

AU - Thiery, Wim

N1 - Funding Information: This work was funded by the DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS1905A), NWO (NL), and the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and co-funded by the European Union through the project “LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation” (LAMACLIMA) (grant agreement no. 300478), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate. Inne Vanderkelen is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (FWOTM920). Gregory Duveiller was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant “Understanding and Modelling the Earth System with Machine Learning (USMILE)” under grant agreement no. 855187. Funding Information: The computational resources and services used in this work for the simulations and storage of CESM data were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI. For the storage of signal-separated results and the simulations of MPIESM, this work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID bm1147. Fei Luo and Dim Coumou acknowledge the VIDI award from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Persistent Summer Extremes “PERSIST” project: 016.Vidi.171.011). Fei Luo would like to thank Philippe Le Sager, Lars Nieradzik, and Thomas Reerink for their help in the discussions for the post-processing and interpretations of EC-EARTH model output. All the simulations from EC-EARTH were carried out on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) platforms. The authors would like to thank Johannes Winckler, Lars Nieradzik, Paul Miller, David Wårlind, and the reviewers for their constructive and useful feedback, which greatly helped improve the paper during the review process. Publisher Copyright: © Author(s) 2022.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios in terms of both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (iii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree regarding whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision-making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

AB - Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios in terms of both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (iii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e. alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil-thawing-driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect; however, the ESMs disagree regarding whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision-making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

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JO - Earth System Dynamics

JF - Earth System Dynamics

IS - 3

ER -

The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models

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