The ‘Black Box’ problem of orchestration: how to evaluate the performance of the Lima-Paris Action Agenda

The Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA), launched in 2014 to mobilize non-state and subnational climate action in the run-up to the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is conceptualized as an orchestration attempt where the French COP21 and Peruvian COP20 presidencies together with the United Nation Secretary General’s office and the UNFCCC Secretariat enlisted non-state and subnational actors to influence states. Using a method seldom used in global governance research to reconstruct the intervention theory of the LPAA, the assumptions and expectations underpinning its performance are unveiled, suggesting a series of micro-steps between input, output and outcome that the evaluator must link causally to understand the LPAA’s performance. This contributes insights for orchestration theory and global climate policy, suggesting that leadership and institutional environment were conducive for the LPAA’s creation. The benefits and challenges of reconstructing intervention theory in global governance research are also discussed.