The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

Marleen C. de Ruiter; Anne F. van Loon

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104720

The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

Marleen C. de Ruiter^*, Anne F. van Loon

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of the increasing complexity of disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss the complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability and suggest methodological approaches to assess and include dynamics of vulnerability in our risk assessments, learning from the compound and multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, and socio-ecological research communities. We argue for a changed perspective, starting with the circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. We identify three types of dynamics of vulnerability: (1) the underlying dynamics of vulnerability, (2) changes in vulnerability during long-lasting disasters, and (3) changes in vulnerability during compounding disasters and societal shocks. We conclude that there is great potential to capture the dynamics of vulnerability using qualitative and model-based methods, both for reproducing historic and projecting future dynamics of vulnerability. We provide examples using narratives, agent-based models, and system dynamics.

Original language	English
Article number	104720
Pages (from-to)	1-13
Number of pages	13
Journal	iScience
Volume	25
Issue number	8
Early online date	4 Jul 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104720
Publication status	Published - 19 Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
MCdR received support from the MYRIAD-EU project, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003276 . AFvL received support from the PerfectSTORM ERC grant project (number: ERC-2020-StG-948601 ).

Funding Information:
MCdR received support from the MYRIAD-EU project, which received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003276. AFvL received support from the PerfectSTORM ERC grant project (number: ERC-2020-StG-948601). The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)

Funding

MCdR received support from the MYRIAD-EU project, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003276 . AFvL received support from the PerfectSTORM ERC grant project (number: ERC-2020-StG-948601 ). MCdR received support from the MYRIAD-EU project, which received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003276. AFvL received support from the PerfectSTORM ERC grant project (number: ERC-2020-StG-948601). The authors declare no competing interests.

Funders	Funder number
MYRIAD-EU
Horizon 2020
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	948601, 101003276
PerfectSTORM ERC	ERC-2020-StG-948601

Keywords

Earth sciences
Environmental event
Social sciences

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.isci.2022.104720

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Cite this

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abstract = "Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of the increasing complexity of disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss the complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability and suggest methodological approaches to assess and include dynamics of vulnerability in our risk assessments, learning from the compound and multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, and socio-ecological research communities. We argue for a changed perspective, starting with the circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. We identify three types of dynamics of vulnerability: (1) the underlying dynamics of vulnerability, (2) changes in vulnerability during long-lasting disasters, and (3) changes in vulnerability during compounding disasters and societal shocks. We conclude that there is great potential to capture the dynamics of vulnerability using qualitative and model-based methods, both for reproducing historic and projecting future dynamics of vulnerability. We provide examples using narratives, agent-based models, and system dynamics.",

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The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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