The Effect of Obliquity-Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene

Peter Köhler; Gregor Knorr; Lennert B. Stap; Andrey Ganopolski; Bas de Boer; Roderik S.W. van de Wal; Stephen Barker; Lars H. Rüpke

doi:10.1029/2018GL077717

The Effect of Obliquity-Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene

Peter Köhler^*
, Gregor Knorr
, Lennert B. Stap
, Andrey Ganopolski
, Bas de Boer
, Roderik S.W. van de Wal
, Stephen Barker
, Lars H. Rüpke

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Climate

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔT_g and radiative forcing ΔR of CO₂ and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state-dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔT_g is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔT_g is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔT_g diverges from CO₂, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔT_g-CO₂ divergence and find that S is less state-dependent, or even constant state-independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO₂.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	6661-6671
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	45
Issue number	13
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077717
Publication status	Published - 16 Jul 2018

Funding

This is work institutional-funded at AWI via the research program PACES-II of the Helmholtz Association. It contributes to PALMOD, the German Paleomodeling Research Project funded by BMBF. Gregor Knorr acknowledges funding by Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German research centers (HGF). B. de Boer is funded by NWO Earth and Life Sciences (ALW), project 863.15.019. This work contributes to the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). We thank Tobias Friedrich for providing data and Emma Smith for language editing. No new data have been generated for this work. All analyzed data sets have been taken from the cited literature.

Funders	Funder number
Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM
Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	863.15.019
Helmholtz Association

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 14 Life Below Water

Keywords

climate sensitivity
ECS
Pleistocene
proxies
simulation
state dependence

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10.1029/2018GL077717

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title = "The Effect of Obliquity-Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene",

abstract = "We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state-dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg-CO2 divergence and find that S is less state-dependent, or even constant state-independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.",

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AU - Köhler, Peter

AU - Knorr, Gregor

AU - Stap, Lennert B.

AU - Ganopolski, Andrey

AU - de Boer, Bas

AU - van de Wal, Roderik S.W.

AU - Barker, Stephen

AU - Rüpke, Lars H.

PY - 2018/7/16

Y1 - 2018/7/16

N2 - We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state-dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg-CO2 divergence and find that S is less state-dependent, or even constant state-independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

AB - We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state-dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg-CO2 divergence and find that S is less state-dependent, or even constant state-independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

KW - climate sensitivity

KW - ECS

KW - Pleistocene

KW - proxies

KW - simulation

KW - state dependence

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The Effect of Obliquity-Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

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