TY - JOUR
T1 - The evidential value in the DNA database search controversy and the two-stain problem
AU - Sjerps, M.
AU - Meester, R.W.J.
N1 - MR2004279
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - Does the evidential strength of a DNA match depend on whether the suspect was identified through database search or through other evidence ("probable cause")? In Balding and Donnelly (1995, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 21-53) and elsewhere, it has been argued that the evidential strength is slightly larger in a database search case than in a probable cause case, while Stockmarr (1999, Biometrics 55, 671-677) reached the opposite conclusion. Both these approaches use likelihood ratios. By making an excursion to a similar problem, the two-stain problem, we argue in this article that there are certain fundamental difficulties with the use of a likelihood ratio, which can be avoided by concentrating on the posterior odds. This approach helps resolving the above-mentioned conflict.
AB - Does the evidential strength of a DNA match depend on whether the suspect was identified through database search or through other evidence ("probable cause")? In Balding and Donnelly (1995, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 21-53) and elsewhere, it has been argued that the evidential strength is slightly larger in a database search case than in a probable cause case, while Stockmarr (1999, Biometrics 55, 671-677) reached the opposite conclusion. Both these approaches use likelihood ratios. By making an excursion to a similar problem, the two-stain problem, we argue in this article that there are certain fundamental difficulties with the use of a likelihood ratio, which can be avoided by concentrating on the posterior odds. This approach helps resolving the above-mentioned conflict.
U2 - 10.1111/1541-0420.00084
DO - 10.1111/1541-0420.00084
M3 - Article
VL - 59
SP - 727
EP - 732
JO - Biometrics
JF - Biometrics
SN - 0006-341X
IS - 3
ER -