TY - ADVS
T1 - The global macroeconomics of a trade war
T2 - Findings from the EAGLE model
AU - Bolt, W.
AU - Mavromatis, Kostas
AU - van Wijnbergen, Sweder
PY - 2019/4/25
Y1 - 2019/4/25
N2 - Increasing protectionism will slow down world trade and may dampen global economic growth. This column examines the global macroeconomic consequences of a major trade conflict between the US and China, and shows that the two countries would be the biggest losers from a 10% ‘tit-for-tat’ trade war between them. As long as it does not get involved in the conflict, the euro area may temporally gain from trade diversion, as competitiveness improves and imports from regions whose exports are blocked elsewhere become cheaper.
AB - Increasing protectionism will slow down world trade and may dampen global economic growth. This column examines the global macroeconomic consequences of a major trade conflict between the US and China, and shows that the two countries would be the biggest losers from a 10% ‘tit-for-tat’ trade war between them. As long as it does not get involved in the conflict, the euro area may temporally gain from trade diversion, as competitiveness improves and imports from regions whose exports are blocked elsewhere become cheaper.
M3 - Online publication or Website
PB - VoxEU.org
CY - London
ER -
