The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK, and Ireland: A simulation study

J.M. Hamilton, R.S.J. Tol

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals-as Western European international tourist demand falls-but later increase numbers-as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south. © 2007 Springer-Verlag.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)161-172
Number of pages12
JournalRegional Environmental Change
Volume7
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007

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tourism
climate change
simulation
continental interior
regional pattern
coast
demand

Cite this

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The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK, and Ireland: A simulation study. / Hamilton, J.M.; Tol, R.S.J.

In: Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2007, p. 161-172.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AB - We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals-as Western European international tourist demand falls-but later increase numbers-as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south. © 2007 Springer-Verlag.

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