The outcomes of mental health care for depression over time: A meta-regression analysis of response rates in usual care

Background: Over the past decades dozens of randomized trials have shown that psychological treatments are more effective than care-as-usual (CAU). It could be expected that these treatments are implemented in routine care and that the response rates in usual care improve over time. The aim of the current meta-analysis is to examine if response and remission rates in usual care have improved over time. Methods: We used an existing meta-analytic database of randomized controlled trials examining the effects of psychological treatments of depression and selected CAU control groups from these trials. We only included CAU conditions in primary care, specialized mental health care, perinatal care and general medical care. The response rate (50 % symptom reduction) was the primary outcome. Results: We included 125 CAU control groups (8542 participants). The response rate for all CAU control groups was 0.22 (95 % CI: 0.19; 0.24) with high heterogeneity (I² = 83; 95 % CI: 80; 85), with somewhat higher rates in primary care (0.27; 95 % CI: 0.23; 0.31). We found hardly any indications that the outcomes have improved over the years. The meta-regression analysis with publication year as predictor in the full dataset resulted in a coefficient of 0.1 (SE = 0.01; p = 0.0.35). A series of sensitivity analyses supported the main findings. Remission rates and pre-post effect sizes also did not significantly improve over time. Conclusions: Response and remission rates in usual care are low, with the large majority of patients not responding or remitting, and the outcomes have probably not improved over time.